Tuesday Double Play: Plenty of Runs in Cincy, Atlanta

reds cubs

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, April 3, 2018 1:17 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 3, 2018 1:17 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, starts his 2018 Picks of the Day campaign with a double play on two 'overs' available in the National League Tuesday night.

2018 MLB Record: 4-1-1, +2.48u

Chicago Cubs (2-3 O/U) @ Cincinnati Reds (2-2 O/U)Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5 RunsBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Jon Lester hopes to have a better start in this game after getting a rough hello when he faced the Miami Marlins last week. The problems were mostly self-inflicted, as Lester walked 3 batters in the first three innings – as well as allowed 7 hits to the weak Miami lineup. He will have a stiffer test on Tuesday night against the Reds, in a game that has him favored at -168 on the moneyline at Pinnacle. A majority of the Reds lineup has had above-average success against Lester, including Billy Hamilton, who owns a .737 career slugging percentage against Lester.

Cody Reed will take the mound for the Reds and has had even less success against this Cubs lineup than Lester does against the Reds. Reed owns a nifty 16.20 ERA against the Cubs and has given up multiple home runs against them in each of his last three starts. Not helping the lefty will be the wind, which will be blowing hard out to left field Tuesday. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras all own slugging percentages over 1.000 against Reed, and the forecast is for dingers on Tuesday. I can’t take Lester with his own struggles against this Reds lineup, but I will gladly take the Over of 8.5 in a game that could see both pitchers get touched up.

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First W in the books! 🤝 pic.twitter.com/wnO62x4VCx

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) April 2, 2018
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Washington Nationals (2-1-1 O/U) @ Atlanta Braves (2-0-2 O/U)Free MLB Pick: Over 9 RunsBest Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Julio Teheran had his worst full season as a starting pitcher for the Braves last year and is coming off an uninspiring performance in his first game against the Phillies. He must have nightmares about facing the Nationals, too, because Bryce Harper absolutely owns him and is in Julio’s head so much he should charge rent. Harper’s career line against Teheran is a cool .460 AVG, .556 OBP and 7 home runs in 37-at bats for a 1.108 slugging percentage. The Nationals' overall lineup around Harper is better than the Braves' lineup at this point as well.

Starting for Washington is A.J. Cole, who doesn’t have electric stuff and can’t get lefties out. Cole pitched 52 innings in 2017 and allowed a .320 BAA to southpaws in limited time. He faced Atlanta once and got knocked around for 9 hits in 2 innings. Ironically, that was against Teheran as well in a 13-12 game, but also a few years ago so the relevance is partially lost. Still, Cole isn’t going to strike fear in the Atlanta lineup here, which should insure more time for the Nationals' bullpen that hasn’t been sharp of late. I’ll count on Cole to give up some runs here and for the game to go Over 9 runs as another one of my Tuesday MLB Picks.

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