Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.
After a couple of ‘overs’ to begin this series, do not be surprised by an ‘under’ in the rubber game Sunday when Nick Tepesch and the Texas Rangers (61-93, 33-47 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Cory Rasmus and the Los Angeles Angels (96-59, 52-28 home) in the final game of a three-game weekend series from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 3:35 ET.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -116.
Good Shape for Top Seed
The Rangers took the series opener here 12-3 on Friday before the Angels evened up the series in another high scoring game 8-5 on Saturday, much to our chagrin as we were on the ‘under’. That win kept the Angels 2½ games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles in the race for the top seed in the American League, a seeding that would draw the Wild Card Playoff Game winner in the ALDS, with the Halos having seven games left to play.
This is actually a matchup of the team with the best record in the Major Leagues and the team with worst record, with the Rangers being the club that has been the worst MLB pick all year. However, Texas has bought into the whole “spoiler role” thing as the loss last night snapped a seven-game Ranger winning streak, including a sweep of the Atlanta Braves that basically eliminated them from a wild card and a sweep of the Oakland A’s that hurt their position.
Tepesch Has Been Improving
Tepesch does not have the best of numbers this year at 5-10 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, but he has gotten better as the year has gone on and he allowed only one earned run and four hits in six innings vs. the Athletics in his last start Tuesday. That marked the fourth consecutive start that Tepesch has allowed three earned runs or less and his eighth such start in his last nine outings.
Tepesch has also had some uncanny success vs. the Angels as he has limited them to three earned runs in all three starts against them this season and in all four of his career outings against them, with the other start coming just last year. Moreover he has the support of a Texas bullpen that had improved to a 2.67 ERA over the last 10 games in 30 innings.
Rasmus Solid in All Roles
Rasmus was having a nice season in the bullpen when the Angels put him in the starting rotation on August 30th following 24 relief appearances, and he has proceeded to allow two runs or less in all four of his starts, in fact allowing two runs once, one run once and no runs twice, although he went a very limited amount of innings. Still, he has allowed a grand total of six hits in 12 innings as a starter.
For the entire season, Rasmus is now 3-1 with a nice 2.51 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with a great ratio of 51 strikeouts vs. 15 walks in 49 innings. And Rasmus really enjoys pitching in Anaheim, with a 2.17 ERA, a .208 batting average against and 33 strikeouts in 29 innings vs. nine walks in this stadium this year.
Might Rest Starters
Finally, there is a real possibility that the Angels may rest some or all of their starters in this contest. They rested everyone on Thursday night the day after clinching the American League West on Wednesday and this is now an afternoon game following a night game on Saturday.
With all of this in mind, let us again try the ‘under’ for the second straight day between these teams, hopefully this time with better results from Anaheim on Sunday.
MLB Pick: Rangers, Angels ‘under’ 8½ (-116)