Trust Padres To Beat The MLB Odds In Hype Game vs. Giants

Jason Lake

Tuesday, May 24, 2016 11:44 AM UTC

Tuesday, May. 24, 2016 11:44 AM UTC

The San Diego Padres have played some close games lately against the top teams in the NL West. They'll try to beat the MLB odds Tuesday versus the San Francisco Giants.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Missed it by that much. We faded the Los Angeles Dodgers in Sunday's game against the San Diego Padres (+153), and San Diego took the game into extra innings for us, but the Dodgers scored four runs in the top of the 17th to beat the Padres 9-5. Oh well. At least we had another live dog in our MLB picks. You can't just shy away from these opportunities because you're scared of the opposing pitcher.

Speaking of which, Jeff Samardzija. He's slated to pitch for the San Francisco Giants this Tuesday (10:00 p.m. ET, ESPN) when they host the Fathers in Game 2 of a three-game set. The Giants are –200 faves on the MLB odds boards as we go to press; if you see a pattern forming here with out recent picks, you're right. It's fading time again.

Hunter Hurts Hammy
We've got the stat nerds on our side. FiveThirtyEight projects San Francisco (28-19, +6.80 units) to win Tuesday's game 65 percent of the time. Nice, but that only works out to –186 using our sleek and luxurious SBR Betting Odds Converter. That doesn't even properly account for the hamstring injuries to Giants outfielders Hunter Pence (.854 OPS) and Angel Pagan (.734 OPS). Both are listed as day-to-day, although Pence won Monday's opener 1-0 with a bloop pinch-hit single in the bottom of the ninth.

Feel better about fading Samardzija (2.78 FIP) yet? Okay, so the Giants are 6-3 behind their nominal No. 3 pitcher for 1.85 units in profit. But what if we told you that the Padres (19-27, –1.01 units) are 4-3 and 1.30 units in the black with Andrew Cashner on the mound? Cashner's 4.43 FIP won't dazzle anyone, but there's hidden value there with his .308 BABIP and 66.1 LOB%, on top of all that extra chalk the Giants have to carry into old Pac Bell Park.

Fantasy Corner
We might normally shy away from doubling down on our upset special by recommending a Padres hitter for your fantasy lineup, but Tuesday is a rare exception. While Samardzija has allowed a mere .607 combined OPS to current San Diego batters, OF Jon Jay (.709 OPS) hasn't been part of the problem. Jay is 10-of-24 lifetime versus Samardzija with a .898 OPS, and he's only owned in 3.9 percent of ESPN leagues at press time.

By the way, maybe the Padres aren't so bad after all. Yes, their minus-32 run differential is disappointing, but they've been without Cashner for a couple of weeks because of his own hamstring issue. He was pitching well before his leg started acting up. Let's see what he can do for us Tuesday night, and may the sphere be with you.

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Free MLB Pick: San Diego Padres +183
Best Line Offered: at Heritage
Record: 8-8 ML, 1-0 Totals (+1.24 units)

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