Trust Nova & Yankees To Win One Last Time Against Angels

Thursday, June 9, 2016 2:39 PM GMT

The LA Angels and NY Yankees complete their 4-game early week set with this 7:05 start at the new NYY stadium. Much like previous meetings between these two on this field, it has been all Pinstripes.

Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees
Victories this week for the Bronx Bombers have come by counts of 5-2, 6-3 and 12-6 last night. That 3-game winning streak comes on the heels of an NYY slide that saw them go 4-8, a period of time in which they plated just 38 runs with a .234 BA and a 4.59 ERA.  Now at 29-30 for the year, the Yankees have an opportunity to reach the coveted .500 mark and look to gain ground in the highly competitive AL East.

The wins also extend the series dominance of NYY vs. LAA to a record of 14-3, including 8 straight wins at this site. With the batting numbers virtually even for the year (home vs. away), we turn our attention to definitive edges in the bullpen for the home team, as well as the home/road dichotomy of today’s starting pitchers. Combined with the Yankees’ momentum and series dominance, it makes for a clear play on the home-standing Yankees.  

 

Analysis
Chacin has made 5 starts since being traded to the Angels at the start of May. In that span, he is 1-1 with a 3.73 ERA. At first glance, his .670 OPS indicates he may be the superior starter today. A closer look reveals that, when pitching on the road, he has a .766 OPS (nearly 100 points higher than when pitching at home). 

Nova has been a solid starter for the Yankees in his 6 trips to the mound.  In 3 of those starts, he has allowed 1 or less run.   Similar to Chacin, he has done far better work when pitching at home. That is pointed out by his .628 home OPS compared to his .750 overall OPS for the year. 

 

Conclusions
Well aware that 12 of 16 (75%) NYY home wins have come by 2 or more runs and that 11 of 16 LAA road losses have been by 2 or more runs.  Despite the dominant wins this week in the series, those numbers are not enough to push us to the concept of “run line underdog.”   Rather I will cast a vote for the Yankees on the money line based on the NY’ers clear momentum, series dominance and the home/road dichotomy of today’s starting pitchers.  I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the NY Yankees tonight.

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Free MLB Pick: New York Yankees -126
Best Line Offered: at Intertops