Trust Montgomery & the Mariners to Upset MLB Odds vs. Padres

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, June 30, 2015 5:54 PM GMT

Tuesday, Jun. 30, 2015 5:54 PM GMT

After getting picked in the first round by Kansas City, and travelling through Tampa Bay, Seattle pitcher Mike Montgomery is making the most of his first MLB call up. Our MLB handicapper looks at tonight's matchup with San Diego in this interleague series and gives his MLB Pick.

The Seattle Mariners take the short drive down I-5 after their series loss to the Anaheim Angels to pay a visit to their interleague rival San Diego Padres on Tuesday night. These two teams split games in Seattle earlier in the season and this two game set is the continuation of their annual interleague series. The Padres are coming off of a series win at home against lowly Arizona but lost their last game on Sunday 4-6. The opening MLB odds in this game have the hometown Padres favored on the money line at -115 at Bovada, and at +192 if you are willing to eat -1.5 on the run line. The O/U total opened at 7 at Pinnacle and is trending downward at time of writing, touching 6.5 at some sportsbooks. The weather is going to be typical San Diego, with temperatures in the mid-70’s F and partly sunny at game time.

Here you can check out Joe C's MLB picks for today

Pitching Matchup
Seattle’s starter, Mike Montgomery, was absolutely lights out in his last start Tuesday against Kansas City at home. Pitching a complete game shutout, Montgomery struck out 10 Royals to boot – and the Royals are a team that doesn’t strike out often. To reiterate, if the Royals 15.8% K-rate holds up for the rest of the year they will be the best team in that statistic since 2011. What was working for Montgomery was a devastating changeup that had the Royals batters perplexed. Out of the 20 changeups Montgomery threw the Royals swung and missed on seven of them (strike three anyone?). He was also pounding the strike zone with all of his other pitches. A great statistic regarding his control is that Montgomery only threw 11 balls after the 4th inning of this complete game.

As a former 1st round prospect now on his third team, the Mariners certainly hope they have found a late bloomer. With James Paxton and Hisashi Iwakuma on the DL with injuries, he certainly will be given the chance to be the 4th or 5th starter for quite some time.

Ian Kennedy takes the mound for the Padres after giving up one earned run in each of his last three starts. He was certainly glad when the calendar went to June, as he has posted a 3.75 ERA in his five starts this month. Kennedy’s ERA had peaked at 7.15 on May 28th. One of the reasons for this was his first start against this Mariner squad on May 12th where Kennedy gave up 5 ER and home runs to Kyle Seager and Logan Morrison in an 11-4 loss. Pitching in the friendly confines of Petco Park half of the time, Kennedy has an interesting severe home/away split so far this year and has posted a 6.82 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP at home versus a 3.38 ERA on the road in almost identical innings pitched.

 

MLB Pick: Even though Seattle’s offense has struggled all year, I don’t think we should ignore success against a particular pitcher. This is especially true as we could have a tight matchup here with Mike Montgomery surprising batters his first time around the league. Batters will eventually adjust to Montgomery’s offerings yet nothing on the scouting report states that they are close to doing so. With the public giving a slight majority to the Padres I like the contrarian play here. I will be backing Seattle at +107 at Bovada as my Tuesday MLB pick.

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