Trust in Dodgers & Kershaw to Muzzle Cubs: Bet Under Run Total

David Lawrence

Monday, June 22, 2015 7:19 PM GMT

Keep in mind when betting Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs on Monday that it will be an all-lefty pitching matchup. Clayton Kershaw is set to throw which is why LAD are favored on the road.

Dodgers vs. Cubs: Momentum
The Cubs aren’t exactly hot but they enter Monday’s matchup with a little more momentum than the Dodgers. The Cubs have won two straight games and five of their last eight. That’s moved them to 37-30 on the season. As for the Dodgers, they have fallen on somewhat hard times as they had dropped five of their last six before spanking the San Francisco Giants on Sunday Night Baseball. Even though they hosted the weekend series, they needed Sunday’s win just to avoid getting swept at home.

 

Monday's Pitching Matchup
With Clayton Kershaw on the mound, the Dodgers are a sizable favorite – even though they’re in a slump and even though they are on the road. That’s because they’ve won four of Kershaw’s last five starts and he’s allowed just six earned runs in those games. For the month of June, he’s posted a 1.95 ERA with a WHIP of 0.81. He has been incredibly sharp. The only real knock on him these days is the fact that he’s already given up nine home runs on the season, which is significant because he allowed just nine in 198.1 innings pitched last season and 11 home runs in 236.0 innings pitched in 2013.

As for Wada, he’s received six starts on the season and has had mixed results. He’s had two outings where he lasted less than 3.2 innings pitched but then he’s only allowed four earned runs across his other four starts. He’s fresh off his best outing, going 7.0 innings pitched while giving up just four hits and no runs.

 

What’s The Pick?
I’ll be looking at the under for my MLB picks in this one. The pitching matchup definitely favors the Dodgers in this one but I don’t like the juice here. I also don’t like that the Dodgers are on the road where they are 12-18 while the Cubs are at home where they are 18-13. Beyond that, the Dodgers don’t hit lefties very well at all as they are 20th in the Majors with a .244 batting average. As for the Cubs, they have the fourth-best batting average against the lefties at .273.

So I look for Kershaw to be able to muzzle the Cubs and while Kershaw has had issues with home runs, the Cubs six home runs against left-handed pitching is the lowest in the MLB. Meanwhile, Wada should do his part too as the Dodgers are on the road and are facing a lefty. That being the case, go under the number in this one, which isn’t open yet as we’re still waiting to find out what the wind situation at Wrigely will be. As long as it’s not crazily blowing out, go under the number in this spot.

MLB Pick: Under at The Greek