Triple Play: Cubs Offense Keeps Going & The A's Roll On

Wednesday, April 25, 2018 12:49 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 25, 2018 12:49 PM UTC

Regression is the name of the game today, as MLB handicapper Mark Lathrop takes a look at two games that could have results that surprise against the trends.

2018 MLB Record: 27-18-2, +8.07u (2 Pending)

Chicago Cubs (10-9 O/U) vs Cleveland Indians (6-14 O/U)

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Free MLB Pick: Over 8 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

The Cubs offense exploded on Tuesday, which was not a surprise to many of us with Josh Tomlin on the mound for them. What could be surprising though, is any success that they have on Wednesday against Trevor Bauer, who is carrying a 2.67 ERA into this game. Not a predictor of future success, Bauer’s ERA is not a valuable stat when compared to his 4.32 xFIP, and his starts against Kansas City, Detroit, and Baltimore aren’t really against the cream of the crop in offenses in the league. The sample sizes are small, but the Cubs have a lineup that has hit Bauer around in the past.

The Cubs will counter Bauer with Jon Lester, who has been just average against the components of this potent Cleveland lineup. Cleveland has been hitting lefties like crap all season, but they are due for some positive regression to average. They will not hit .155 against lefties all year long. And even then, we may not need Lester to give up much to hit our wager, as he has had amazing run support all year and his 4 starts are cashing Overs at a 3-1 clip. I’ll back that trend with Bauer’s specific difficulties against batters present and take the Over of 8 in this game as one of my top MLB Wednesday Picks.

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Everybody had a hit.
Everybody had a run or an RBI.#EverybodyIn

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) April 25, 2018

Oakland Athletics (12-11 SU) vs Texas Rangers (8-16 SU)

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Free MLB Pick: Oakland Athletics ML, Under 10.5 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

The Oakland Athletics have by far the best offensive team in the MLB this year by overall WAR. However, that offense may be overvalued coming into their series finale with Texas and starting pitcher, Doug Fister. Fister will come off of the DL to make this start after 3 games in 2018 in which he allowed 3 or less earned runs. One of those starts was to the Oakland Athletics where he gave up 2 earned runs in a 6-2 loss against Sean Manaea. Not exactly a start in which he got lit up, and no expected batter in the lineup for Oakland has an OBP over .400 against Fister coming into this game.

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The 'name a more iconic duo' meme is super old, but seriously, name a more iconic duo than Jed Lowrie and doubles.#RootedInOakland

— Oakland Athletics 🌳🐘⚾️ (@Athletics) April 25, 2018

That isn’t saying I think Texas will win though, as I’m not expecting Fister to go deep in the game due to his coming back from the DL. The Ranger bullpen is terrible, so Oakland will get to them late. Starting for Oakland is the struggling Kendall Graveman, who also will welcome today’s lineup as he does well against the batters that Texas has available right now. Graveman has some luck statistics, such as a .373 BABIP, that are due for positive regression. His stats up to this point are one of the reasons why I think we have a chance to wager against a total as high as it is today. I will take advantage of that total ,and hope that the Ranger bullpen doesn’t blow it too much, by taking both the Oakland Athletics on the moneyline and Under 10.5 runs as two more MLB Picks of the Day.

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