Trio Of Winning Over/Under MLB Picks For Thursday

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, April 6, 2016 10:44 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 6, 2016 10:44 PM UTC

It's our first "getaway" Thursday, so there are some teams playing matinees in the finale of a series and then traveling. There are also the start of some four-game weekend sets. Here are my top three totals MLB picks for the day with BetOnline's MLB odds.

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
It's a 4:05 p.m. start for Washington's home opener, so shadows around home plate could be an issue for hitters for a while in this NL East matchup. It's supposed to rain in D.C. on Thursday but forecasts are for most of it to happen before the first pitch. Brief showers could occur during the game. This of course then would also be the home debut of new Nationals manager Dusty Baker, who was the team's second choice after Bud Black.  The Nationals give Tanner Roark the ball. He was brilliant in 2014 in going 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA in 31 starts. But Roark was largely pushed out of the rotation last year with the team's signing of Max Scherzer. Roark slipped to 4-7 with a 4.38 ERA in 40 appearances with 12 starts. But he's back in the rotation now with the offseason losses of Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister. Roark had a 5.79 ERA in 14.0 innings against Miami in 2015 with three losses and save. Justin Bour is 2-for-6 with a homer and three RBIs career off him. Giancarlo Stanton has a homer in 12 at-bats. Marlins lefty Adam Conley was 4-1 with a 3.76 ERA as a rookie last season and then very good this spring to lock up a rotation spot. He has faced Washington once, allowing three runs in five innings. Wilson Ramos homered off him.

Take 'Under' with your MLB picks. Weather should help the pitchers. The 'under' is 3-0-1 in Washington's past four series openers. It is 4-1 in Roark's past five vs. the NL East.

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MLB Free Pick: Under 8
Best Line Offered: at William Hill


Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
This is the highest total on the board. The Cubs, who have their spring training home not far from the Diamondbacks' Chase Field, were the preseason World Series favorites and their hitters bashed the Angels for 15 runs and four homers in a two-game sweep to open the season. Dexter Fowler led the way, going 5-for-8 with a homer and four runs scored. Here, it's the Cubs debut of John Lackey. He was the most consistent pitcher on the Cubs' arch-rival Cardinals in 2015, going 13-10 with a career-low 2.77 ERA. Lackey handed the Cubs their only loss of the NLDS in Game 1 as well but wasn't sharp in Chicago's clinching Game 4 win on short rest. Lackey beat Arizona in his lone start last year, allowing a run and seven hits over seven innings. New Arizona second baseman Jean Segura is 8-for-19 career off him, all singles. The Diamondbacks counter with Rubby De La Rosa. In his first season with the team in 2015, the right-hander was 14-9 with a 4.67 ERA in a career-high 32 starts. He was 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts against the Cubs. Fowler is 3-for-11 off him with two RBIs. Kris Bryant has a homer in four at-bats.

Play 'Over.' The 'over' is 7-0-1 in Chicago's past eight Thursday games and 5-0-2 in Arizona's past seven on the day. It has hit in six of De La Rosa's past seven vs. winning teams.

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MLB Free Pick: Over 9 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Series opener for these AL West rivals and the first road game for the Rangers. They start left-hander Derek Holland. As recently as 2013, he was one of the better lefties in the American League with a 10-9 record and 3.42 ERA. But his 2014 was cut short due to Tommy John surgery. Last year, he didn't even make it through one start before missing four months with more shoulder problems. Holland finished 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA in 58.2 innings. He handled the Angels, though, going 2-0 with a 2.51 ERA in two starts. Mike Trout likes to face him, hitting .313 with two homers and nine RBIs. Albert Pujols is hitting .348 off Holland with three homers. Trout and Pujols are a combined 0-for-15 thus far in 2015. The Angels start lefty Hector Santiago. He was named an All-Star last year with a 6-4 record and 2.33 ERA at the break. But after that, he was 3-5 with a 5.47  ERA. He faced the Rangers more than any team, going 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA in six starts. They hit just .175 off him. Adrian Beltre has three homers and three doubles in 28 career at-bats off him. Rougned Odor hits .529 off the guy in 17 at-bats.

Bet 'Over.' It is 4-1 against the MLB odds in Holland's past five starts. It is 7-1 in Santiago's past eight vs. Texas. 

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MLB Free Pick: Over 8
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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