Trigger Warning: Total Below 7 in LA with Rockies Visiting

Clayton Kershaw

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, April 19, 2017 1:05 PM GMT

Wednesday, Apr. 19, 2017 1:05 PM GMT

Our expert MLB handicapper's analytical approach has led to a string of near misses, but his conviction of going 'Over' low totals has paid off so far this season. Read on as he explains why we should take the 'over' in Wednesday's Rockies-Dodgers game before the line moves.

2017 MLB Record: 19-23- (-5.83 Units, -11.63% ROI)

There are things that are not readily apparent in this world, and then there is the fact that when I see a total with a 6 in front of it I will take the 'Over.' Every. Single. Time. I am 2-1 ATS in games I’ve covered with totals in the 6s, so there is no reason to stop now. In fact, there are more than enough reasons to lay down on the 'Over' for Wednesday's Colorado at LA Dodgers game..

 

Too Much Juice To Take The Side

Baseball is too random to take the ridiculously favored Dodgers in this game. The -288 moneyline odds at Heritage must be driven by the fact that the book thinks we forgot about the last time Clayton Kershaw pitched against the Rockies (hint: he lost). The +251 odds that Colorado is pulling down at BookMaker is tempting enough as it is, and I’ll be looking at the run line when it finally comes out.

 

Kershaw Gave Up 3 HRs Last Week to the Rockies

The top 3 batters in the order for the Rockies took Kershaw deep in their last game, as he gave up 6 fly balls in that contest and 3 of them left the playing surface of Coors Field. Yeah, I know, it’s Denver at altitude, but at minimum the top of the lineup was squaring Kershaw up. He’s human. And apparently lucky as well, with a season .192 BABIP that is well under his .270 career average. I’ve said this a few times: Balls hit will end up missing fielders and that statistic will eventually even out. From the looks of it, we only need the Dodgers to give up 2-3 runs in this game for it to go 'Over' the total.

 

Rockies' Anderson is Getting Rocked

Tyler Anderson’s best start on the year was his last one in San Francisco, when he gave up only 4 earned runs and 2 home runs over 4 innings pitched. He’s had two starts on the road this year and is giving up a .325 batting average against in those games. Not that we should put too much into his first 14.2 innings pitched or anything, but we only have a 6-run bar to clear here after all.

 

Perfect Weather

The weather is set to be in the mid-70s come first pitch and sunny. And the wind will be coming from the southwest. Almost directly out if you look at the ballpark orientation of Chavez Ravine. Squared up balls against either one of these pitchers … or a lesser bullpen arm will surely leave the yard. That’s it! I’m taking 'Over' 6 runs while it is still available at BetDSI as one of my Wednesday MLB Picks.

MLB Free Pick: 'Over' 6Best Line Offered: BetDSI

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