Trends Too Hard to Ignore: Pick Reds +112 to Prevail Over Pirates

Ross Benjamin

Friday, July 31, 2015 12:15 PM GMT

Friday, Jul. 31, 2015 12:15 PM GMT

Can the Reds capture their fourth win in a row today? Will Pittsburgh be able solve their woes this season versus Cincinnati? Read our betting preview article which culminates with a money line pick.

Reds Look to Continue Domination of Pirates
The Reds and Pirates will play the second of a four game series today in Cincinnati at 7:10 PM ET. Cincinnati took the opening game of the series with a 15-5 rout of the Pirates. As a matter of fact, Cincinnati has inexplicably dominated Pittsburgh this season by winning eight of the ten encounters, and that includes all four games played at home. These teams have also gone 7-2-1 over the total in those ten games against each other.

 

Starting Pitchers
Jeff Locke will get the start today for Pittsburgh. Locke has really struggled on the road this season, posting a sizable 6.57 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in seven starts. The Pirates southpaw hurler is 12-3 over the total during his road starts since 2014. He’s made two starts versus Cincinnati in 2015, posting a lofty 4.91 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, and both games went over the total.

The Reds go with right-hander Michael Lorenzen on Friday. His performance line overall during his last four starts (8.83 ERA/2.02 WHIP) is terrible. However, the numbers are a bit askew due to his previous start at Coors Field in Colorado where many pitchers have struggled over the years. Lorenzen has gone 4-3 in his team starts at home with a respectable 4.02 ERA. He’s made one start against Pittsburgh this season and was very effective, allowing just 1 earned run on 3 hits while walking 3 during 6.0 innings pitched.

 

Home and Away Splits
The Pirates have been dominant at home this season going 35-16 (.686) at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The antithesis to that equation is that they’re a beatable 24-25 in away games. Contrarily the Reds have gone a somewhat decent 26-22 at home, and their road record is a terrible 20-32.

 

Final Analysis
Cincinnati has garnered a bit of momentum by winning three straight. Those wins were a bit sweeter since they came over division rivals St. Louis and Pittsburgh, who both reside ahead of them in the NL Central standings. I give Cincinnati a slight edge in the starting pitching department today, and it’s hard to ignore how well they’ve fared versus Pittsburgh during this 2015 MLB campaign. I’m going to have a small lean toward the money line home underdog for one of my MLB picks on Friday. According to the MLB betting odds at Heritage, they possess a superior betting value pertaining to this specific wager.

MLB Pick: Play Cincinnati +112 at Heritage

comment here