Tuesday brings us a full slate of games to choose from, and there is plenty of value up and down the board.
There’s one underdog on Tuesday which has really caught my eye and needs to be taken immediately. I’m also eyeing what should be a great pitcher’s duel in Chicago and a great spot for a troubled team.
Top MLB Trend Plays
- Zack Greinke Over 5.5 hits allowed (-125 via DraftKings)
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Under 7 (-120 via DraftKings)
- Los Angeles Dodgers ML vs. San Diego Padres (-105 via bet365)
Top MLB Trend Predictions
Greinke Over 5.5 hits allowed (-125)
This one is a bit of a deep cut, but I think the trends point to a cash on this bet. The Detroit Tigers surprisingly haven’t been all that bad at the plate lately in terms of racking up hits, batting .235 over the last two weeks. That puts them 18th in the league during that time, which is a lot better than you’d expect considering their low wRC+ and run production numbers.
That should put the Tigers in a good spot here against Kansas City Royals start Zack Greinke, who is really trending in the wrong direction. He just allowed 10 hits in a bad outing against the Minnesota Twins and going back over his last seven starts, he’s allowed more than five hits in five of them. The two where he didn’t, he was right on five hits.
The Tigers may be plagued by strikeouts, but Greinke isn’t a strikeout pitcher. This should be a good opportunity for them.
Phillies-Cubs Under 7 (-120)
When the Chicago Cubs are slotted as home underdogs, that generally means runs will be hard to come by for Chicago. In the last six games in which the Cubs played host as the underdogs, the Under cashed five times. On the season, it’s 21-17-1 in these spots.
I feel pretty good about the Under on Tuesday, considering the pitchers we have going. Marcus Stroman has pitched to a 2.79 ERA across his last five starts, and while he did draw the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies during this span he also had to go against the Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, and St. Louis Cardinals.
Philadelphia Phillies starter Zack Wheeler, meanwhile, continues to be one of the best pitchers in the league. He owns a 2.98 ERA with a 3.07 xERA and draws a Cubs team ranked 25th in wRC+ over the last two weeks.
For whatever reason, San Diego Padres left-hander Blake Snell simply can’t beat the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Padres are 2-5 against their division rivals dating back to last year when the lefty starts. In fact, San Diego lost the last four games it played against L.A. with Snell on the bump.
In all of those games, the Padres were an underdog of at least +122. This is the rare time to fade Snell against the Dodgers at a reasonable price.
The best part is that Tyler Anderson will get the ball for the Dodgers. They’re 3-1 when he faces San Diego, and in all three of those starts Anderson owns a 1.50 ERA. He’s been an exceptional pitcher this season, and I love getting in on him at these short odds while we can.
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MLB trend picks made on 9/27/2022 at 2:03 p.m. ET.