Total Set For Astros & Indians Is Pretty Low For Two Teams Of This Caliber

Cleveland Indians At The Mound

Charles Stark

Tuesday, September 6, 2016 1:08 PM GMT

At this stage in the regular season, every game counts, and for both the Indians and Astros, this game has a lot of meaning for their postseason aspirations. Our betting expert analyzes this game and provides his MLB pick.

As the Cleveland Indians continue to lead the central division in the American League the Houston Astros are trying to make one last push towards the playoffs. Today they meet in Cleveland for another important matchup and we are going to look at the total for this game. Oddsmakers have set it decently low for an American League contest, but have they set it too low?

 

Houston Astros
Brad Peacock gets the start for Houston and comes in with a 3.86 ERA and 1.00 whip making a spot start, his first of the year. It is never easy when looking at the total of a game and there is a nonstarter taking the mound due to certain circumstances, but that is what we have today. In his relief appearances, Peacock has been solid allowing just three earned runs in his seven innings of work this season. Looking closer at his career he does have quite a few starts over the past few seasons with 18 of them coming on the road. In those road starts, he has a 4.82 ERA while allowing 21 home runs in 106 innings of work which is not a good ratio. I believe he could struggle today against a Cleveland offense that absolutely can light up the scoreboard at home. 

Offensively Houston could end up having a long day at the plate facing Corey Kluber, however, they hit him well in the one opportunity they had this season garnering five earned runs off of five hits in just under three innings of work. As well, they are averaging over five runs per game in their last five contests. They should have enough quality at-bats to push some runs across home plate to help get over the total.

 

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Cleveland Indians
Corey Kluber gets the start for the Indians and comes in with a 3.09 ERA and 1.05 whip with batters hitting .226 against him in Cleveland. Kluber has been great in his last five starts as the Indians have won all five and he has allowed just 11 earned runs in 40 innings of work. Still, he is not gotten out of any game unscathed and with the way Houston is hitting the ball plus the fact they should come in with some confidence I imagine he will give up probably a few today. 

At the plate I've mentioned time and time again how tremendous Cleveland is hitting at home compared to hitting on the road, they are simply a different monster. The Indians go from averaging just over four runs per game on the road to just under six at home, as well as batting .238 on the road to .294 at home, and, finally, there OPS jumps from .692 to .843. I expect for them to have a lot of really good at-bats today and probably knock a couple out of the park. This could be a long day on the mound for Peacock.

 

MLB odds
Most Oddsmakers have come out with the total for this game at 7.5 with some higher juice on the over along with 8 at some good value at other places. For my MLB pick, I'm going to forgo paying the higher juice and back over the total of 8 in this matchup. I expect a lot of runs from the get go in to see a final total that is closer to double digits.

July/August record: 30-23-2
September record: 4-0

Free MLB Pick: Over 8 +100
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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