Top Value Picks Of The Day, May 11th 2017

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, May 11, 2017 12:40 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 11, 2017 12:40 PM UTC

Our Baseball handicapper is on a bit of a heater, winning 7 of 9 ATS over the last few days. Here he makes his Thursday MLB picks, focusing on some bankable trends on today's betting card.

 [/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays

The Mariners continue their East Coast swing in Toronto carrying some momentum on their side. They’ve won 6 of 7 games and scored more than 8 runs in each. They get back their DH, Nelson Cruz, for this game against the Blue Jays as well.

I’ve been fading the Mariner bullpen and picking Overs lately, which have cashed at a nice 7-2 rate in their last 9 games. This game will be no different, but the Seattle offense is due a little bit of credit in keeping this trend alive, as they have scored 8 or more runs in 5 of those 9 games. In this game they draw Marco Estrada, who is coming off of a 6 inning, 5-run appearance at the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s been good on the year, but that hasn’t helped with his record and he has just one winning decision over his first seven starts.

The Mariner bullpen is still short staffed, and it is easy to see why. Four of the five starters that Seattle broke camp with are now on the DL. This has forced arms that shouldn’t be in the rotation in, and AAA call ups into the bullpen. Only by sheer offensive force have the Mariners been able to climb back to .500 on the season. If Seattle is winning games, it is of the 10-8 variety, and no lead is safe. Even in Wednesday’s win against the Phillies the Seattle bullpen gave up 2 garbage home runs in the 9th inning. I’m taking the trend to continue and picking Over 9 runs at Pinnacle as one of my Thursday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Over 9Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona tries to keep up with some hot teams in the NL West as they host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday. Luckily, they have their best pitcher on the mound and a good home record to boot.

These teams are polar opposites when it comes to home and away splits, with Pittsburgh playing to an abysmal 6-12 record on the road and Arizona winning at home to an opposite 12-6 split. In fact, the Arizona Diamondbacks are tied with the best home record in the National League.

Starting for Arizona is Zack Greinke, who has returned to his 2015 form after an off 2016 season. Of importance for Greinke is his strikeout rate, which has shot up to a 9.69 K/9 rate after only 7.60 last year. He will face a Pirates offense which ranks 29th in the MLB in total offense when measured by accrued wins against replacement. Greinke will face Gerrit Cole of the Pirates, who will need to be nearly perfect to win this game. His 16.7% HR/FB rate won’t play well in Arizona though, so I think one mistake will bite him and get Arizona the win. Arizona is worth the extra juice here, so I am taking them at -132 at Pinnacle as a Thursday MLB Pick of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Arizona -132 Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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