Top Value on 'Over' 6.5 Runs for Giants vs. Padres MLB Picks

Willie Bee

Friday, September 19, 2014 2:31 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 19, 2014 2:31 PM UTC

San Francisco is in control of the NL Wild Card, but would love to steal the NL West from LA.  A weekend MLB odds series in San Diego just might help the Giants do that.

With the Atlanta Braves having already shown they weren't a playoff-caliber team, and the Milwaukee Brewers starting to tumble out of the picture as well, the quintet to vie for the National League pennant appears to be set.  Bruce Bochy would like to firm that notion up, and maybe put a little pressure on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West race this weekend when his San Francisco Giants visit San Diego to take on the Padres.

The series opener is set for a 10:10 PM (ET) first pitch with the initial mound duel at Petco Park featuring a grizzled veteran against a rookie.  San Fran's Tim Hudson is the former, and also the favorite against San Diego rookie Odrisamer Despaigne.  The Giants are showing up at -135 on SBR's live MLB odds where a 6.5 run total is taxed a little heavier to the high side.


Giants 2 In Front Of Pirates For Top NL Wild Card
San Francisco (84-68, +10.7 units, 72-72-9 O/U/P) is coming off a series win in Phoenix where the Giants began their final road trip of the season.  The G-Men also just enjoyed their final off day of the regular season campaign, leaving the bullpen rested for this series.  Manager Bruce Bochy's biggest job this weekend will be to keep his team from looking ahead to the series against the Dodgers in Los Angeles which begins Monday.

San Diego (71-81, -11.1 units, 57-90-5 O/U/P) started its final homestand by taking three of four from the hapless Phillies.  The Padres are by far the lowest-scoring team in the majors (3.24 rpg), and only part of that can be blamed on the pitcher-friendly park they call home.

The season series between the Padres and Giants stands even, 6-6, and also level in each stadium, 3-3.  Only one of the 12 clashes in 2014 accounted for a double-digit total, that being a 6-4 win for the Pads in San Francisco, and totals have run 2-3-1 O/U/P in the half-dozen matchups at Petco Park.  One more meeting after this series is on the 2014 slate for the clubs, a long 4-game set at AT&T Park in San Francisco to close out the season next week.


Hudson, Despaigne Clash For 2nd Time
Hudson got off to a great start in his first season with the Giants, San Francisco winning 11 of the veteran righthander's first 13 starts while he pitched to a sparkling 1.81 ERA in that span.  That ERA has almost doubled in the subsequent 16 assignments, the Giants losing 10 of those, including all three in September when Hudson has a 10.50 ERA.

He will be pitching with an extra day of rest Friday when he takes on the Padres for a fifth time this year, and that could help the sore right hip Hudson is dealing with.  The 39 year old owns a solid 2.96 ERA in the previous four outings vs. San Diego, even lower at Petco (2.08) where the Giants have split his two starts.

Despaigne was called up to the Padres rotation in June, and impressed in his initial five starts when the Cuban allowed two runs or fewer and worked at least six innings each time out.  Two of those assignments came against the Giants, who managed to plate just one run in 13 innings against Despaigne, yet still earned a split in those matchups thanks to a leaky Padres bullpen.

A few clouds will linger above San Diego this weekend, along with a 12-15 mph breeze out of the northwest (in from left), but that's the only weather to really speak of.  The night games Friday and Saturday should both get underway with the thermometer in the low-70s, and Sunday's matinee won't be much warmer than that.

Both Hudson and Despaigne pitched well when they met July 5 in San Diego, each allowing a run in six innings for no-decisions in the Giants' eventual 5-3 win that took 10 innings.  Three of those runs scored late to send the game past the total, and I think the 'over' will be a free MLB pick winner without extra innings this time.

MLB Pick: Giants-Padres Over 6.5 (-115) at 5Dimes

Season: 121-117 (+3.05)

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