Top Value MLB Picks of the Day: Wednesday, May 10th

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, May 10, 2017 12:36 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 10, 2017 12:36 PM UTC

Mark Lathrop spots great value in Oakland, and a lottery ticket worth buying in Los Angeles. Read on as he looks to fade both L.A. teams on Wednesday for his MLB Picks of the Day.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics


In this AL West matchup, the Oakland Athletics find themselves in the midst of a hot stretch and have a chance to pick up a win against a division opponent with their best pitcher on the mound.

Andrew Triggs has been a revelation for the Oakland Athletics this year. The signs were there as he dominated in the minors and excelled in his cup of coffee last year while putting up a 3.20 FIP. He’s built on that 2016 success and started 2017 strong, putting up a 2.68 FIP, 27/7 K/BB rate, and a minuscule 3.4% HR/FB rate. His ground ball rate of 55.2% is awesome, especially paired with a lower hard-hit rate and pull rate of 40.6%. Think of ground balls weakly hit to the left side and you have the preferred outcome of an Andrew Triggs at bat.

Looking at those stats against the starter for the Angels, Jesse Chavez, and you definitely see a mismatch. Chavez is 2-4 over six starts while putting up a 4.57 FIP and 15% HR/FB rate. His splits indicate that he can be abused by right-handed lineups, as he allows a .297 batting average against righties. This line has a lot of value with Triggs at home, so I will be taking Oakland on the moneyline as one of my Wednesday night MLB Picks of the Day.

 Free MLB Pick: Oakland -125Best Line Offered: at Bet365

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3141014, "sportsbooksIds":[43,139,1096,19,300], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers


In this most lopsided betting line on the board, our MLB handicapper looks to make back parlay odds on a matchup that shouldn’t be a complete disaster for the Pirates.

How a pitcher can be favored as steeply as Kenta Maeda is in this matchup I have no idea. The extreme fly ball pitcher has put up a 5.81 ERA on the season while allowing an 18.4% HR/FB rate. Maeda is striking out batters but is getting deep into counts doing so, which has limited his innings pitched per start on the year. Maeda is allowing a not so good .299 batting average against lefties on the season through 31 innings pitched. He can be taken advantage of, given the right situation.

Pittsburgh has six possible left-handed bats they can stack the lineup with on Wednesday. They also have Andrew McCutchen, who went 2-3 with 2 HR’s in his only game against Maeda in his career. With MLB odds sitting at +205, Pittsburgh should have better than a puncher’s chance at upsetting the Dodgers in this game. For that reason, I’m willing to lay on the extra risk to get the reward of +205 on the moneyline, currently available at Bookmaker.


Free MLB Pick: Pittsburgh +196 Best Line Offered: at BookMaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3141380, "sportsbooksIds":[93,139,999996,227,238], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/] 

comment here