Top Value MLB Picks of the Day, May 20th

Tampa Bay rays

Saturday, May 20, 2017 2:50 PM GMT

Our expert handicapper, Mark Lathrop, was running a nearly 60% ATS win rate in May coming into Friday's games. Here he looks to keep a good month rolling with his Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

The Padres are tanking; however, a bright spot continues to be the pitching of Luis Perdomo. It’s a name I tend to gravitate too because of my penchant for cigars. Does the young righty stand a chance against the hot Diamondbacks?

Luis Perdomo can’t buy a win pitching for the Padres, even though he has given up only 8 earned runs in his last 24 innings pitched spanning four starts. Perdomo has only given up two home runs on the year as well, a rarity in this season’s jump in HR/FB rates. In his last game, he lost even after posting a 9/0 K/BB rate. Perdomo’s FIP of 2.95 is among the National League’s best marks.

On Saturday, he will face Robbie Ray and the Diamondbacks, and I believe that Ray can get touched up. For one, Ray’s walk rate has skyrocketed in 2017 and has hit 5.16 BB/9. Not much deep analysis to realize that is bad. Also, Ray has had two short outings in a row where he got hit hard and left the game early. That’s a recipe for the Diamondback’s bullpen to get involved, and I’ll go ahead and call the Fernando Rodney blown save right now. If there is a game that the Padres are going to win in this series, it is this one, so I am taking them as a home underdog on the moneyline at Heritage as one of my Saturday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick San Diego +106 Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay comes into this matchup after winning two series on the road against Boston and Cleveland. It’s a sign that this team has a little fight in them, and I like their ability to keep this game close on Saturday night.

This is the first time I’ve got my eyes on Tampa Bay starter, Matt Andriese, and he deserves it after the May he is putting in. Over 3 may starts Andriese has been excellent, putting up a 2.08 ERA and .211 BAA over 17.1 innings pitched. He’s picked up two winning decisions in those starts including one on the road at Boston. Andriese did pitch against the Yankees on the road in April, slinging six innings of one run ball in a 3-2 Yankee win. He gets the Yankees at home here, and I think he keeps things rolling enough to have this game a close one.

With the odds found at a reasonable -145 on the underdog +1.5 run line at Heritage, I also believe we can take the insurance run just to be safe. Especially with Masahiro Tanaka’s positive history against the Rays, although he lost his start this year against them – the first loss of his career against Tampa Bay.

Free MLB Pick: Tampa Bay +1.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Bonus Pick: Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners: Pick Chicago +1.5