Top Value MLB Picks, May 12th 2017

Milwaukee Brewers

Mark Lathrop

Friday, May 12, 2017 2:17 PM UTC

Friday, May. 12, 2017 2:17 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper's winning May continues with his Friday MLB Picks of the Day. Read on as he breaks down two games and throws in a third value pick just for good measure!

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers

New York Mets starter, Matt Harvey, has lost a bit of shine over his last few starts. Now he heads on the road to Milwaukee and faces a tough matchup with a hot Matt Garza. Our handicapper suggests a play on the home team is the way to go.

Matt Harvey has been lit up in his last two starts, both to the underwhelming Atlanta Braves home and away. He comes back to start this game after suspension, but it won’t help his fastball, which is trending three full ticks below his prior career average. His walk rate has crept up and his strike rate has dropped, and he has the lowest K-BB% in his career right now. Not good at all.

Matt Garza starts for the Brewers and is the more trustworthy option here. Garza has a nice 2.55 ERA and a 3.31 FIP over 17.2 innings pitched, and he hasn’t walked a batter in his last 13.2 innings as well. Looking for the Brewers to jump on Harvey early and Garza to cruise here, so I am taking the home team at -101 on the moneyline at Pinnacle as one of my Friday MLB selections.

Free MLB Pick: Milwaukee -101Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays

Two unexpected pitchers start this game, but one has a distinct advantage as our MLB handicapper analyzes the possibilities in this Seattle vs. Toronto matchup.

Joe Biagini starts this game for the Blue Jays as he continues to get stretched out after starting the year in the bullpen. He’s only scheduled for a 70-pitch count on Friday night, which with a patient Mariners lineup could only net him four innings. Even with his FIP of 2.41 on the season we have to handicap this game as if the Toronto bullpen will be pitching most of the action. The Blue Jays’ bullpen has put up a 4.82 ERA at home, and more than 20% of their hits allowed have left the yard. Definitely a weakness to be taken advantage of.

Not to be outdone, but with a significant improvement, Seattle starts Christian Bergman. He’s been great in Tacoma on the year, picking up a 5-0 record in his five starts with a 2.17 ERA. Bergman is a soft tossing righty that throws a bunch of junk and 32.5% fastballs. I’m looking for him to keep Toronto off balance with that, then the high-velocity arms in the Seattle bullpen will be a great change of pace. I’m taking Seattle in this matchup at +116 over at BetOnline as a Friday MLB Pick.

Free MLB Pick: Seattle +116Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Bonus Pick - Cicinnati Reds vs San Francisco GiantsFree MLB Pick: Cincinnati +1.5 Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
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