Top Value MLB Picks for Sunday, May 14th

Astros pitcher Charlie Morton in action

Sunday, May 14, 2017 12:50 PM GMT

Sometimes finding value on the card is just finding lines that just aren't as bad as they seem. Given enough chances, you will end up ahead in units if you are getting paid plus odds for toss-up games. Here are our MLB handicapper's Picks of the Day for Mother's Day.

  Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees

 

Two of the top teams in the American League meet up on Sunday Night Baseball, as the Houston Astros visit the New York Yankees on primetime television. A good pitching matchup tilts towards the Astros because of the plus odds offered on the side.

Charlie Morton has transformed himself into a power pitcher at the age of 33, bringing the heat in the mid-90’s now as his career average fastball is at 91.6 mph. He’s always been good at getting ground balls, which is always a plus in this age of upper-cut swings for batters. It has kept his HR/FB% down at 10% to start the year. But really, it is Morton’s velocity that is the story here, as he is a completely new pitcher at this point. Old scouting reports go out the window, he can get away with more mistakes, and his K/9 rate of 9.98 is well above his career average.

It will be tough to fade Masahiro Tanaka in this game, but that is what I am about to do here. Tanaka has won 5 straight decisions coming into this matchup, even with a season ERA of 4.36 that is just about average. He’s benefitted from outstanding offensive support – helping him overcome a batting average allowed against right-handers of .296. This game should be a toss-up and we are getting plus odds on one side, which is why I will be taking the Houston Astros at +123 on the moneyline as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.

 

Free MLB Pick: Houston +123Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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  Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

 

Arizona’s offense has been great at home this year, but it is the struggles of their starting pitcher on Sunday that takes this total pick into value territory. Read on as our MLB handicapper describes the angle.

Robbie Ray hasn’t pitched well at home at Chase Field this year and this is a massive understatement. The left-hander has put up a 6.35 ERA at home over 22.2 innings pitched and has allowed a .256 batting average against. Part of his problem has been pitching out of the stretch, a situation in which Ray’s BAA climbs from .183 to .294 as compared to pitching with the bases empty.

Arizona’s offense looks to pick up the slack here, and their 6.3 runs per game average at home suggests that they can do so. The Diamondbacks are batting an incredible .301 at home on the season through Friday night. They are slightly less effective against righties on the season, yet I like their prospects of touching up Ivan Nova for a few runs early in this game. Add in Robbie Ray’s recent struggles and I’ll be taking Over 4 runs in the first 5 innings in this game.

 

Free MLB Pick: Over 4 F5Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

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