Top Underdog for Tonight's MLB Picks: Grab D-Backs at Plus Odds

Darin Zank

Tuesday, September 22, 2015 1:26 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 22, 2015 1:26 PM UTC

Arizona handed Los Angeles its third loss in a row Monday night, and in the process gave this handicapper a nice underdog payout. We and the D'Backs go looking for more Tuesday night.

Diamondbacks-Dodgers Tuesday Odds
In surfing Tuesday's MLB odds the best price we could find on Los Angeles with lefty Alex Wood was the -171 at BetOnline, while Arizona and fellow lefty Robbie Ray were getting +166 at 5Dimes. The Dodgers could also be found getting +127 giving the run and a half on the run line at Pinnacle.

The Situation
Arizona grabbed the opener of this series Monday night 8-4, rapping out 17 hits, including three homers, winning, to our delight, as a +155 post-time underdog. So the Diamondbacks have won three of their last four games, while Los Angeles has lost three in a row.

At 85-64 LA still leads the NL West by seven games over second-place San Francisco, but it lost another game in its battle with the Mets for the No. 2 seed in the upcoming National League playoffs, and now leads that race by just a half-game.

At 72-78 Arizona is trying to make one last run at .500.

LA now leads this season series 11 games to five with the OVERS going 8-7-1.


Tuesday's Twirlers
Wood (11-10, 3.63), by our tough accounting, is 10-for-21 on quality starts this season, three-for-nine since coming over to Los Angeles in that trade with Atlanta back around the deadline. Three starts ago he threw seven shutout innings against San Diego; next time out, though, he got bombed for eight runs – six earned – in less than two innings against this Arizona outfit; but last time out, six days ago, he tossed eight scoreless innings against Colorado, allowing just one hit, with zero walks. For the season Wood has allowed 179 hits through 171 innings, walked 56 and struck out 128.

The Dodgers are 4-5 in Wood's starts, with the UNDERS going 5-3-1.

Over three career starts against Arizona, one last year and two this year, Wood has allowed nine ER through 16 2/3 innings; his teams lost two of those games.

Ray (4-12, 3.72) is only six-for-20 on quality starts, in part because of a short leash. Last Wednesday he gave up four runs in 4 2/3 innings against San Diego, but in his three starts previous to that he held opponents to just three runs through 15 2/3 innings. On the season Ray has allowed 105 hits through 111 innings, walked 44, which is a bit too many, and struck out 101.

The Diamondbacks, thanks in part to some poor run support, are just 5-15 in Ray's starts, with the UNDERS going 13-6.

In three starts this season against LA Ray has allowed six runs over 17 2/3 innings; Arizona only won one of those games, the losses coming by scores of 3-1 and 4-3, and two of those games played UNDER.


Tuesday's Batting Splits
Arizona ranks ninth in the Bigs this season against left-handed pitching with both a .329 team on-base percentage and a .416 team slugging percentage.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, ranks third against lefties with a .335 team OBP and 10th with a .415 team slugging percentage.

We'll call this battle of the bats a wash.


Ballpark Totals Factor
After last night's game played OVER games played at Dodger Stadium this year are now 41-32 on the OVERS, even though they're only averaging 7.5 runs per. SBR's Willie Bee already has provided us with a Free MLB Pick on the Diamondbacks-Dodgers Total, so we will focus on the ML, as we believe that value could lie with the dog here.

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D'Backs-Dodgers Free Picks
We'll give Ray a short edge in the pitching match-up, and Arizona owns a short edge in the bullpen. For our free MLB pick on this contest we believe the betting value resides with the D'Backs, at the underdog price.

Picks: Arizona +166 at 5Dimes

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