After scrutinizing the MLB odds on offer, we have isolated a pair of totals for Memorial Day Monday. Let’s cash big with Red Sox vs. Twins & White Sox vs. Blue Jays.
2:10 PM EDT Red Sox (20-22-1 O/U) vs. Twins (21-19-2 O/U)
Mike Napoli must feel like he has finally found the elusive oasis after a season long dry spell in which he carried a .178 average and four dingers through his first 36 starts of the season. Like a tale from an old Hollywood movie, a young lad signed his bat and the lifeless chunk of hickory that had been his bane suddenly morphed into a rocket launcher scorching four homeruns, a .555 batting average and eight RBI's over his last three games.
Though Napoli's torrid hitting will undoubtedly cool we can't help but notice that after eight consecutive Red Sox games in which the MLB odds total went under, the last two contests have gone over the posted total. There is little question that the talent Boston acquired in the offseason to bolster an anemic offense will eventually bear fruit. It just may be that Napoli's resurgence is coinciding with his team's offensive awakening.
The Twins are one of the feel good stories of the early 2015 campaign. They rank 8th in runs scored and are second in their division. This team has the chops to put up plenty of crooked numbers and can be a difficult team to contend with when their pitching is on. However, this afternoon they welcome veteran Ricky Nolasco to the bump, a 32-year-old right-hander who has had plenty of luck on his side as evidenced by his 4-1 record despite a 6.00 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP.
He will be opposed by Joe Kelly who totes a 5.13 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Kelly has pitched much better over his last pair of starts limiting the Mariners to one run on five hits and then returning with another quality start on Wednesday when he held the Rangers to only two runs over seven full innings of work. This will be Kelly's first appearance against the Twins in his career.
Some MLB odds betting trends to consider:
The over is 6-0 when the Red Sox are on the road in games where the total is between 8-8 ½
The over is 5-0 in road games where the Red Sox are between 100 to -125 favorites
The over is 13-7 in Minnesota's day games this season.
Bottom line for me is that the Sox are starting to hit, Nolasco has a career 5.08 ERA against Boston and cannot seem to go longer than five innings. Joe Kelly has had a few good outings but the Twins can derail a pitcher very easily and Kelly is not of elite pitching timber in this league. Place your MLB pick expecting plenty of scoreboard changes in this one.
MLB Pick: Over 8 ½ (-120)
7:05 PM EDT White Sox (15-24-1 O/U) vs. Blue Jays (22-21-2 O/U)
If you ever doubted just how important the pitching ingredient is to a winning recipe in Major League Baseball then look no further than the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays boast the most prolific offense in the bigs yet find themselves at the bottom of the AL East. Today they will host the White Sox and send Drew Hutchison to the hill. Hutchison has seen the Southsiders only once in his career and he got lit up for seven runs over seven innings of work.
Chicago has gone under the posted MLB odds total over the course of their last six games while Toronto has gone low in four of their last five. But the combination of ham-and-eggers like Hutchison (6.06 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) of Toronto and Hector Noesi ( 6.06 ERA, 1.65 WHIP) of Chicago make this one a combustible combination of offensive power and pedestrian pitching. There will be plenty of runs plated in Toronto tonight
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-110) at GTBets.com.