Top Plays to Go 'Over' Offered in Monday's MLB Betting Board

Ross Benjamin

Monday, September 21, 2015 3:23 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 21, 2015 3:23 PM UTC

Our resident MLB handicapping professional has isolated two totals on Monday’s card that he deems to be strong MLB picks. So, join us in reading this insightful betting preview article.

Reds (Lamb) vs. Cardinals (Garcia) 8:15 PM ET
John Lamb has struggled over his last three starts, posting a lofty 5.52 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Cincinnati has gone over the total in six of the previous seven, and thirteen of their last sixteen games. The Reds pitching has really struggled since they’ve gone to an all rookie five man starting rotation. They’ve allowed 6.4 runs per game and opponents have amassed a sizable .902 OPS against them during their last seven contests.

Jaime Garcia is having a terrific year when taking his whole body of work into consideration. However, he’s compiled a less than impressive 5.25 ERA during his previous four starts, and has a large 7.84 ERA during two outings versus Cincinnati in 2015. The southpaw hurler will be facing a Reds team tonight that averages 0.88 stolen bases per game this season. He’s gone 14-3 over the total in his career when facing opponents averaging 0.85 or more stolen bases per game.

I’ll lean toward this game to be a high scoring affair for one of my MLB picks on Monday. According to current MLB betting odds, Pinnacle provides the best betting value pertaining to this wager.

MLB Pick: Play the Reds and Cardinals Over 7.5 (+107) at Pinnacle.

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Pirates (Burnett) vs. Rockies (Gray) 8:40 PM ET
A.J. Burnett will be out to reverse his late season swoon which has plagued him in recent starts. Burnett has posted a terrible 7.86 ERA in his previous five starts, and four of those games went over the total. He’s made two career starts at Coors Field in Colorado, compiling a poor 7.30 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in those outings. Pittsburgh has gone 9-4 over the total in their last thirteen games.

Jon Gray has made four starts at home this season, and each of those games went over the total. Gray was a major contributor to those high scoring affairs, evidenced by a 7.87 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in those outings. As a matter of fact, he’s lasted 5 1/3 innings or less in all of those starts. That’s not good news considering Colorado’s bullpen has a horrible 5.06 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at home this year. The Rockies are averaging 5.5 runs per game at Coors Field in 2015 with an impressive .839 OPS.

I alluded to this interesting tidbit in my Sunday MLB totals article. Since 2011, any game with a total of 10.0 or more during the month of September resulted in 42 of those 62 (67.7%) going over the total. Those sixty-two contests averaged a combined 12.7 runs scored per game. After shopping this total for the most favorable option, it will be 5Dimes that will receive my call.

MLB Pick: Play the Pirates and Rockies Over 10.5 (-110) at 5Dimes.

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