Top Offenses Expected to Make Royals vs. Blue Jays Go 'Over' 8.5

Charles Stark

Thursday, July 30, 2015 12:55 AM GMT

Thursday, Jul. 30, 2015 12:55 AM GMT

In what is likely the most intriguing matchup of the day, I'm going to back over the total when the Kansas City Royals visit the Toronto Blue Jays. This game could be a future American League playoff game between the best defensive team in the major leagues and arguably the best offensive team. 

Odds
The juice on this game is a little high for my taste but I think there is still some value in backing the over. Oddsmakers have come out with the line at 8.5 and the juice has gone up from -105 to around -120 at most sportsbooks. The best MLB odds to grab the over 8.5 is at Pinnacle at -117 and at Heritage at -115. Most likely this total will climb to 9 by first pitch, but that is just my estimation.

 

Pitching Matchup
Danny Duffy takes the mound for the Royals with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He has also he has been very solid in his last three starts in which he is allowed only two earned runs. In one of those games he pitched against this same Blue Jays team (without Tulo) and allowed zero runs over six innings with only four hits. But I think this should help Toronto with getting a second look at him and hitting in their home park where all their offensive stats go up. As well, away from Kansas City batters are hitting .278 against Duffy.

For the Blue Jays Marco Estrada takes the mound with a 3.55 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and is having arguably his best season as a major leaguer. Like Duffy, although he is coming off a bad outing in his last start, he has pitched well recently, allowing only seven earned runs in his last three starts. Also, again like Duffy, he is facing the Royals for the second time in the past few weeks, allowing two earned runs in six innings off of nine hits the last time. He has been solid at home but I still like the fact that Kansas City is getting a second look at him, much the same scenario as Duffy with the Blue Jays. Don't look for him to have the same kind of success this time around.

 

Batters
Both the Blue Jays and the Royals are two of the better hitting teams in the league. Toronto leads the league in runs scored per game, OPS, and are fifth in batting average. As previously mentioned all their offense of stats go up in Toronto. The Royals are not too far behind them, ranking seventh in runs scored per game, eighth in OPS, and fourth in batting average. Like Toronto, Kansas City hits better at home than away, but their overall road numbers are still solid batting .266, which is ranked second in the major leagues.

This should be a really fun game to watch but I like the matchups on both sides to have a lot of quality at-bats against these two decent pitchers. I think a big key in this game is the second chance opportunity that both these teams are going to get against these pitchers. Both of them pitched well the last time they matched up in Kansas City, but I don't see that same scenario happening today. With the Royals being a solid road team at the plate, and Toronto arguably the best hitting team in the majors, we should see a lot of quality at-bats with a final well above the number. When breaking down the stats it looks like the oddsmakers set this total a bit too high, but don't buy into that, there should be a lot of runs today north of the border.

MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (+105) at 5Dimes 

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