Top Notch MLB Picks of the Day for Monday, May 8th

Mark Lathrop

Monday, May 8, 2017 1:04 PM UTC

Monday, May. 8, 2017 1:04 PM UTC

In this daily article, Mark Lathrop has focused on home run line underdogs, and it just so happens that there are two teams coming off of a marathon game that can be faded on Monday in this situation.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]  Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies


The Cubs travel all the way to Colorado in the wee hours of the morning after a marathon game against the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball. Our handicapper thinks it is enough of a difference to take the run line home underdog Rockies in this matchup.

Just like Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta has experienced a drastic decline in his fastball velocity in 2017. He’s lost a full two ticks off of his fastball, from a 93.6 average to a 91.6 mph, and his hard hit, pull rate, and HR/FB% rate has skyrocketed as a result. His batting average allowed has also gone up about 50 basis points to both left and right handers. Not surprisingly, Arrieta is putting up an underwhelming 4.63 ERA on the season, although he is 4-1 in six starts covering 35 innings pitched.

I backed the starter for Colorado in this game, Antonio Senzatela, last week when he faced Jered Weaver and the Padres on the road. That in itself is not remarkable, as I back whoever is facing Jered Weaver in all of his starts. Senzatela won that game though after being spotted a huge lead, giving up 2 earned runs over six innings pitched. Senzatela is also 4-1 over six starts with 38 innings pitched. On very, very short rest for the visiting Cubs, I believe that the home team has value given the spotted run, so I will be taking Colorado +1.5 as a Monday MLB Pick.


Free MLB Pick: Colorado +1.5 (+120)Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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   New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds


Same situation as the Cubs, the New York Yankees have to travel on to Cincinnati after a terribly long game with the Cubs on Sunday night (Monday morning). The home run line dog is again the play here, with a depleted New York bullpen.

It is no doubt in my mind that the Yankees have the more talented roster in this matchup, but this is a situation in which a very hot Cincinnati Reds team can be backed comfortably. The Yankees are currently in the 15th inning against the Cubs and will be traveling to Cincinnati to face a team that has won 8 of their last 9 games. Who knows what the New York Yankees bullpen will look like once they arrive in Cincy.

The Reds start Rookie Davis in this game, and although he is coming in with a 4.50 ERA at home, he is also coming off of a 5-inning shutout performance against the Pittsburgh Pirates. But the starting pitchers here can be hardly handicapped, as I am counting on the Yankees to be so sleep deficient that any semblance of competence should do the trick. Especially when spotted a run with a value line at home. I’m taking Cincinnati +1.5 runs against the sleepy Yankees.


Free MLB Pick: Cincinnati +1.5 (+123)Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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