Top MLB Picks of the Day: Predicting Over/Under Total Runs

Swinging Johnson

Monday, April 27, 2015 2:30 PM UTC

Monday, Apr. 27, 2015 2:30 PM UTC

As part of our daily search for profit off the sportsbooks, we have reviewed the MLB odds & honed in on three totals for Monday night. Let’s sweep the board in our MLB picks this evening.

Blue Jays (10-8-1 O/U) vs. Red Sox (13-6 O/U)
The Jays travel to Fenway tonight after getting swept by the Rays in their three-game set last night. But tonight they hope to break out of their funk by sending Aaron Sanchez to the hill who owns a 5.15 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP. Not exactly the kind of stats that you want to see against a loaded Boston lineup in what can be not-so-friendly Fenway for an opposing pitcher.

The Red Sox hope to shake free of any lingering effects from the 18-7 thrashing they took at the hands of the Orioles last night. This was a team constructed to hit but the suspicions concerning their starting rotation are beginning to manifest with a 5.00 team ERA, better than only the Baltimore Orioles with a 5.04. Toronto is ranked 28th in the league, directly above Boston, with a 4.80 ERA. Joe Kelly takes the hill for the Sox tonight after suffering his worse loss of the season when he was tagged for five runs on eight hits over five innings in a 7-5 loss to Tampa Bay.

I suspect the Boston bullpen will be arm-weary tonight after the Sox called upon five relievers to get through the offensive blitzkrieg they faced yesterday while Toronto’s Aaron Sanchez should find the going rough in Fenway. Look for plenty of scoreboard changes tonight.

MLB Pick: Over 8 ½ (+105) at The Greek


Brewers (10-8-1 O/U) vs. Reds (7-9-2 O/U)
The Milwaukee Brew Crew embarks on a six-game road trip starting tonight and fresh off a 6-3 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Reds are in the midst of a three-game losing streak dropping a 5-2 decision to the Cubs last night. These Central Division foes hooked up last week in Milwaukee with three of those four contests going under the posted MLB odds totals.

Tonight Jimmy Nelson gets the assignment for Milwaukee and he has been stellar this season with a 1.35 ERA and a micro 0.70 WHIP in three starts. Cincinnati has veteran Jason Marquis on the hill and unlike Nelson, has gotten tagged in his three starts resulting in a 7.20 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP in his three starts this season.

Here’s what we know regarding the pitching matchup. Jimmy Nelson pitched brilliantly against the Reds on Wednesday in what turned out to be an agonizing 2-1 defeat where he went eight full innings of three hit, one run ball. Conversely, Marquis’ last outing was against Milwaukee where he was lit up for five runs on nine hits over five full innings of work in a 16-10 slugfest that actually earned him a win. While I don’t suspect Nelson will be a Cy Young candidate he is pitching better than anyone anticipated and Jason Marquis’ track record demonstrates he is not the punching bag he has been in the early going of the 2015 season. The total in MLB odds between these two clubs has the under cashing overwhelmingly with a record of 37-17-1. This one goes low tonight.

MLB Pick: Under 7 ½ (-115) 


Astros (11-7 O/U) vs. Padres (12-8 O/U)
Keep in mind when preparing your MLB picks for this match that the Astros early season returns have surpassed everyone’s expectations. Houston is 5-1 on their current nine-game road trip and begins their three-game set with the Padres tonight. In their five wins they have averaged almost five runs per game and will have Collin McHugh on the bump tonight.

San Diego snapped a four-game skid last night with a 3-1 victory over the Dodgers. Prized free agent signing James Shields will be chuckin’ for the Padres and he has allowed three earned runs over each of his last two starts while pitching six innings in both. Shields has pitched historically well against the Astros with a career 1.74 ERA and a 0.935 WHIP. But then again, everyone has pitched well against what has been an anemic lineup that Houston has trotted out in recent memory.

But this Astros team is different. They can hit and they are currently in a groove. It should also be noted that San Diego is ranked 5th in the league in runs scored. I think the MLB odds are low in this one which means we are going high.

MLB Pick: Over 6 (-120)

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