Top Betting Value MLB Picks on the Run-Line & Money Line Include Nats & Astros

Ross Benjamin

Friday, April 10, 2015 3:14 PM GMT

Our resident MLB consultant shares his two best values on the run-line for Friday. Read his revealing betting preview article on the games between Philadelphia/Washington and Houston/Texas.

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies 7:05 PM ET
According to the  MLB Odds at BetDSI, Washington is -1.5 (+115) and Philadelphia +1.5 (-135) on the run-line.

The Nationals will send veteran southpaw Gio Gonzalez to the hill tonight. Although he’s seen a bit of decline pertaining to his statistical numbers in recent years, Gonzalez remains a quality starter that would be the ace of many other pitching staffs outside of Washington.

Jerome Williams gets the nod for the Phillies in this NL East contest. Williams is a 33-year old vagabond starter that pitched very well for the Phillies late last season after being acquired in a trade, but prior to that was horrible. As a matter of fact, one of his starts for the Phillies came versus the Nationals, and he allowed five earned runs in five innings of work which is hardly impressive.

The Nationals bullpen hasn’t allowed an earned run in each of their previous two games. Contrarily, the Phillies bullpen was asked to work 6.0 innings in Thursday’s 6-2 loss at the hands of the Red Sox. The Nationals are also listed as a -150 money line favorite at Bookmaker for today’s game.

Any money line favorite of -150 or more (Washington), coming off two straight games in which their bullpen didn’t yield an earned run, versus an opponent who’s bullpen pitched 6.0 innings or more in their previous game, has seen that money line favorite go 34-5 (82.2%) during the past five seasons, and they possessed a huge +2.6 run per game differential in those thirty-nine games.

MLB Pick: Washington -1.5 (+115) on the run-line over Philadelphia at Pinnacle.

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Get your cash rolling with this trio of MLB picks on the totals for tonight's games!

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers 4:05 PM ET
According to the MLB betting odds at Bookmaker, Texas is a -107 money line favorite. However, at that very same sportsbook, Houston is -1.5 (+150) on the run line. That dichotomy between money line and run-line certainly raises a red flag for me personally. It’s a very rare occurrence when the money line underdog, is in turn the run-line favorite. My experience has shown me that more times than not, the run-line favorite cashes in this exact scenario as MLB pick.

I really took a liking to Colin McHugh of the Astros a season ago. He pitched much better than his 11-9 record in 2014 would indicate, posting an outstanding 2.73 ERA, and compiling a superb 1.02 WHIP in those twenty-seven starts.

The Rangers Derek Holland is coming off an abbreviated 2014 campaign that saw him make only make five starts due to injury. Holland suffered from shoulder fatigue during spring training which limited him to just two starts. He was ineffective in those outings posting a lofty 5.40 ERA.

MLB Pick: Houston -1.5 (+150) on the money line over Texas at Bookmaker.