Too Much Value on Miller & Braves Against Cardinals, Back Atlanta

Charles Stark

Friday, July 24, 2015 11:46 PM GMT

For tonight's value play it makes sense that the Cardinals are favored in this spot against the Braves, but there is good value here on Atlanta to pull off the upset with a good pitcher on the mound.

Odds
MLB odds makers came out with this game at +173 for the Atlanta Braves on the plus money line. This makes some sense considering the overall matchup, but in some places this line dropped immediately because I think people understand there is good value with this much plus money. At two places you can still get the +173 on the Braves and that is that BetOnline and Sportsbetting. For me anything over +150 I think is good value on a game in which I believe the Braves could win.

 

Pitching Matchup
Probably the best thing I like about this pitching matchup is that Shelby Miller gets the start for the Braves and is a former Cardinal, so he should feel at home pitching in St. Louis. He comes in with a 2.33 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, along with an unfortunate 5-6 record. I'm a little surprised at this high line because Miller has pitched well all season. In his last 10 starts he only had three subpar outings in which he allowed four runs at Arizona, one of the best hitting teams, four runs against Washington, leading the NL East, and five runs at Colorado. In his other seven starts he pitched very well, but right now he is on a bit of a losing streak that I'm sure the Braves want to help him get out of.

Carlos Martinez gets the start for the Cardinals. He comes in with a 2.51 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, and has been on fire recently, pitching extremely well. In his last 10 starts he only had one subpar outing in which really wasn't bad at all, allowing three runs against Miami. There is a lot to like about this 23-year-old and he has been really solid at home. Still, this is baseball and Miller could easily shut down the Cardinals just as well as Martinez could shut down the Braves.

 

At the Plate
For how dominant the Cardinals have been this season statistically, they have been more of a middle tiered type of offense. The Cardinals rank 17th in the league in runs scored per game and the Braves rank 24th. In OPS the Cardinals rank 13th and the Braves rank 25th, and in batting average the Cardinals rank seventh and the Braves 15th. Good thing about the Braves though in this spot is that both their runs per game and average go up on the road.

Of course the Cardinals are to be favored in this spot with Martinez on the mound, playing at home, and their stellar record. Still, Miller has had a fantastic year and should be fired up to face his old team. The Braves are not the worst team in the league offensively and should be able to scrape together just a few runs, or enough to give Miller a shot at getting the win here and get out of his losing streak. Back the value play on the Braves.

MLB Pick: Braves +171 at 5Dimes

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