Too Good to Be True? Public Perception Creates Prime MLB Betting Opportunity

Charles Stark

Tuesday, June 2, 2015 11:24 AM GMT

Tuesday, Jun. 2, 2015 11:24 AM GMT

I am not sure when people need to start believing in the Minnesota Twins, but I already believe.  I will back them today for my MLB picks on the plus money line against the Boston Red Sox.

Plus Line
Sometimes when it looks too good to be true it is in sports wagering.  But I think this is more of a case of a name team and pitcher at home getting the nod as the favorite instead of the better team. MLB odds makers have come out with the Twins as a +120 underdog.  With the game at Boston it makes a bit of sense but I still like the Twins here and don’t look at this as the fictitious “trap” game.

 

Pitchers
Clay Buckholz takes the mound for the Sox and in my opinion he is a bit overrated.  He comes in with 4.33 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, and his career ERA is just under 4.00, yet it seems he gets talked about like he is a tier one pitcher.  He is good but not lights out, and so far this year at home he has got knocked around a bit with 5.24 ERA.  Veteran Mike Pelfrey takes the mound for the Twins with a 2.77 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His career number ERA is a bit over 4.00 but he has been good in limiting run production allowing at most 4 runs in two games this year out of nine starts.  He faced the Sox last week and was solid giving up only one earned run.

 

At the Plate
Minnesota is ranked 4th in the league in runs scored per game and 9th in batting average, and we'll back then tonight with our MLB picks. They have not done anything particular great, but they have been solid in not leaving a runner on in scoring position.  Boston on the other hand, is not the team you used to know.  They rank in the bottom half of the league in most offensive categories, and in their last three games they are averaging under three runs a game.

MLB Pick: Minnesota Twins +159 at BetOnline

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