Tonight's Top Totals: MLB Picks Focused on the Over & Under

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, June 18, 2015 1:52 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 18, 2015 1:52 PM UTC

Our MLB consultant discusses two totals on Thursday’s card. Join us in reading his insightful analysis on the games between San Diego/Oakland and San Francisco/Seattle.

Padres (Kennedy) vs. A’s (Gravemen) 3:35 PM ET
The Padres Ian Kennedy has gone 8-3 over the total this season with a very lofty 5.84 ERA. Kennedy has been prone to giving up the long ball in 2015, allowing 13 home runs during just 57.0 innings pitched. San Diego has gone 43-24-1 over the total this season. Putting that into proper perspective, hypothetically if you wagered on the Padres to go over the total in all of their 68 games, it would have resulted in one push, and 64.2% of your other 67 wagers would’ve cashed. That’s an enormously high win rate considering the sample size.

Kendall Gravemen has seen all three starts at home this season go over the total. In those outings he posted a mammoth 10.53 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, and allowed 4 home runs in only 13 2/3 innings pitched. Oakland has gone over the total in each of their previous four, and averaged 9.7 runs per game in doing so. The A’s have banged out 10 hits or more in six of their previous eight games.

This will be the finale of a four game set between these teams, each of their first three went over the total, and there was an average of 13.0 runs per game scored. I like that trend to continue, and one of my MLB picks on Thursday will be indicative of that prediction. Heritage unequivocally provides me with the best wagering value on this total.

MLB Pick: Play on San Diego and Oakland to go over 7.5 (+100) at Heritage.


Giants (Vogelsong) vs. Mariners (Montgomery) 10:10 PM ET
The Giants bats have gone cold over the past week. They’re hitting a pathetic .185 as a team during their previous seven games, scored 2 runs or less in five of the last six, and have gone 5-1 under the total in those previous six. Ryan Vogelsong will make the start for the Giants this evening. Although he’s been far from impressive this season, and has displayed bad form over his last three starts, he should be able to get well tonight against one of the worst hitting teams (Mariners) in baseball.

Seattle has scored 3 runs or less in 18 of their previous 21 games, and amassed only 2 runs or less in 10 of the last 14. They enter tonight hitting a paltry .187 as a team during their last seven games. The Mariners have gone under the total in each of their last six home games, and are 21-11-2 under at Safeco Field during this 2015 MLB campaign. Seattle will go with southpaw Mike Montgomery on the mound tonight. This will be only the fourth start of the season for Montgomery, and he’s been stellar in his first three. In those outings he posted a stellar 1.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

Besides everything I already alluded to regarding this game, both bullpens have been outstanding this season. I like this to be a low scoring affair, and Pinnacle provides me with the best betting option.

MLB Pick: Play on San Francisco and Seattle to go under 7.5 (-123) at Pinnacle.

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