Tillman & Maeda Poised for Quality Starts to Keep Orioles-Dodgers Under

Tuesday, July 5, 2016 10:57 AM GMT

For interleague Tuesday we head to Los Angeles to look at the matchup between one of the best offensive teams in baseball against one of the worst statistically. Baltimore has some solid stats this year at the plate but the Dodgers have seen their struggles. Is there any value on the total line today?

Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
When I first went over the MLB odds for today's matchup, the 7.5 total on offer for this matchup felt to be a bit off, and given the names slated to toss the balls tonight, I had figured that this line would be a bit lower. For that reason,my MLB pick today I will back under the total with what I feel is a strong pitching matchup, with both starters expected to have quality starts, leading to a low scoring game.

 

Baltimore Orioles
Chris Tillman gets the start for Baltimore and comes in with a 3.71 ERA and 1.25 whip along with a 10-2 record. He definitely has had some help this year with his stats not really matching up with his win loss record. The Orioles are one of the best hitting teams in baseball ranking fifth in runs per game, fourth in batting average, and second in OPS. However in their series versus the Mariners they looked a lot more pedestrian averaging under four runs per game while getting swept in Seattle. I am not super high on Tillman but I believe he has a good matchup today versus a Los Angeles team that has really struggled at times to score this season. Except for a tough outing versus the Tampa Bay Rays in three out of his last four starts he has kept the hit totals to a minimum allowing just six versus the aforementioned Mariners, five versus the Blue Jays, and five against the Red Sox who are the best hitting team in baseball. I expect he should be able to limit the damage by the Dodgers today.

View our Overnight Lines report for our first take on this matchup.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers
Kenta Maeda starts today for Los Angeles and comes in with 2.82 ERA and 1.09 whip while the Dodgers are hitting .238 as a team which ranks second to last in the major leagues. Offensively the Dodgers have been doing enough recently to put some wins together but that has been due to the outstanding pitching by their staff. Currently, they rank in the bottom third of the league in most categories highlighted by ranking 27th in hits per game, 28th in average (mentioned), and 26th in OPS. Some people might be surprised about Maeda this season but I am not one of them having watched his career closely in Japan. I don't expect Baltimore to do a ton against him today mostly because it is their first time facing him which has proved problematic for most teams. He has been lights out for the most part this season and in his last five starts, he has allowed no more than six hits in a game, in fact, that stat remains true for his last 10 starts. Bolstered by the National League's leading relief staff with a 3.01 ERA and batters hitting under .200 against them look for the Orioles to have a bit of trouble scoring enough to help get over this total.

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Free MLB Pick: Under 7.5 -105
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle