Tigers vs. Twins MLB Picks: Back Minnesota to Keep Finding Ways to Win at Home

Charles Stark

Thursday, July 9, 2015 12:46 AM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 9, 2015 12:46 AM UTC

The Twins are simply a different monster at home, so I'm going to back them as my plus money line upset of the day against the Tigers. There is good value on a scrappy Twins team that simply seems to find a way to win at home.

MLB odds makers have come out with Detroit as a -135 favorite, which makes sense with David Price on the mound. This makes the Minnesota Twins a +125 underdog, which is good value with a good home pitcher and a team that simply plays better at home. Detroit is also a little bit thinner now at the plate without Miggy.


Veteran Pitchers
David Price takes the mound with a 2.54 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, he is also arguably the best left-handed pitcher in baseball. In his seven-year career he is a very solid 3.15 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. In his last three starts he has only given up six runs in 19 innings and he can really be dominant on the mound anytime he starts. The one thing benefiting the Twins in this matchup is the fact this will be the third time they face him this season and the second time in Minnesota. The Twins had some success against him in their last matchup, getting three earned runs off of him in six innings, nothing to shout about but they should have some confidence against him at the plate. Mike Pelfrey will get the start for Minnesota. He has a 3.94 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Like Price, this will be the third time he has faced Detroit this season and he has had some success. Well, the success came at home where he is a much better pitcher. He allowed just one earned run and three hits in seven innings last time out against the Tigers in Minnesota. He had less success in Detroit, allowing four earned runs in just four innings, but again, he is pitching at home tonight, where he has a solid 1.80 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

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Since Miguel Cabrera went down the Tigers actually have not missed much of a beat at the plate and have still been producing runs. The Tigers are ranked fourth in the league in runs scored per game with Minnesota ranked 14th. The Tigers are ranked second in the league in on base plus slugging percentage, with Minnesota ranked 21st. But like Pelfrey, the Twins are a much better hitting team at home and are ranked sixth in runs scored per game at home in the league, and ninth in on base plus slugging percentage in Minnesota. This is the kind of disparity that plays in our favor when breaking down the value of the game. Some teams are simply like that, and have a lot more confidence hitting at home than on the road, so look for the Twins to battle every at bat, even a great pitcher like Price.

Just coming back to the value, with home and away disparities on the mound and at the plate the value is with the Minnesota Twins tonight. It seemed to me that with a solid pitcher like Price and the overall better offensive stats that the odds makers would have come out making Detroit a +140 to +150 favorite but they didn't. I think this line says a lot about the respect that the odds makers have for the Minnesota Twins at home. Back them to upset the Tigers today and grab the value.

MLB Pick:  Although the pitching matchup favors the Tigers in this spot there are some good home and away trends to back Minnesota tonight. Take the Twins +133 at 5Dimes

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