Tigers & Blue Jays Double Value MLB Pick on Offer

Darin Zank

Friday, August 28, 2015 12:17 PM UTC

Friday, Aug. 28, 2015 12:17 PM UTC

The Blue Jays and Tigers combined to score a bunch of runs the first time they met this season, and this handicapper is hoping they continue along those same lines when they meet tonight. 

Tigers-Blue Jays Friday Odds
As of this writing the best line we could find on Toronto with knuckle-baller RA Dickey was the -190 offered at BetOnline, while Detroit with lefty Matt Boyd was getting +183 at Pinnacle. And every book we checked listed a total on tonight's game of 9.5 runs.

Also, the Jays were heavy -425 favorites at 5Dimes to win this series, while BetOnline was giving the Tigers +375. Keep in mind Detroit will miss David Price this weekend.


The Situation
Toronto just took two of three games at Texas, missing the sweep and having a five-game winning streak snapped in a 4-1 loss Thursday. So the Jays are 6-1-1 over their last eight series, and 21-5 over their last 26 games.

At 71-56 Toronto leads the AL East by a game and a half over second-place New York.

Detroit, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at home to the Angels, losing Thursday 2-0. So the Tigers are just 1-5 over their last six series, 7-12 over their last 19 games.

At 60-67 Detroit has called it a day for this season, now just playing spoiler from here on out.

This is the second meeting between these teams this season; back in early July the Tigers took two of three games from the Jays at Comerica, with all three of those games playing OVER, as the teams combined to score 40 runs.


Friday's Mound Match-Up
Dickey (8-10, 4.26), by our strict standards, is 13-for-26 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last three. Last Sunday he gave up five runs and 11 hits through six innings against the Angels, although all those runs came in the first inning, and over his last three starts he's allowed 13 runs through 16 innings. On the season Dickey has permitted 162 hits, including 20 homers, through 167 innings, walked 56 and struck out 100.

Toronto is 14-12 in Dickey's starts, with the totals going 12-11.

Dickey has faced Detroit once earlier this season, back on July 4 when he gave up five runs and 11 hits through 5 2/3 innings of an 8-3 Blue Jays defeat. But last year, in two starts against the Tigers, he held them to four runs through 11 innings, as Toronto split those two games.

Boyd (1-4, 7.04) is just one-for-six on quality starts, one-for-four since joining the Tigers in that trade with Toronto. Last Sunday he allowed three runs in six innings against Texas, while seven days before that, with a one-inning relief stint in-between, he gave up five runs in five innings against Houston. For the season, including a pair of starts for the Blue Jays back in June-July, Boyd has allowed 43 hits, including eight home runs, through 31 innings, walked seven and struck out 22.

The Tigers are 1-5 in Boyd's starts, with the totals going 2-4.

This will be Boyd's first-ever start against his former team.


Friday's Batting Splits
Detroit ranks third in the Bigs this season against right-handed pitching with a .270 team batting average, and eighth with a .323 team on-base percentage. But of course, Dickey isn't your average right-hander, throwing those flutterballs of his.

Toronto, on the other hand, ranks No. 1 against left-handed pitching with both a .285 team BA and a .360 team OBP.


Ballpark Totals Factor
The UNDERS are 37-24 in games played at Rogers Centre this season, even though they're averaging 9.1 runs per. Obviously, oddsmakers have been posting some large totals on Jays home games.


Tigers-Jays Friday Free Picks
Dickey doesn't inspire a ton of betting confidence in us, but his team is on a roll, and we've got to go with the hot team in this spot. And because today's MLB odds on the money line are a bit too steep for our taste, we'll take a chance with the home team against the run line. Also, these teams teamed up to create three OVERS back in July, and we don't see much reason to think that won't happen this weekend, too.

MLB Picks: Toronto -1 1/2 (+101) & OVER 9.5 runs (-113) at Pinnacle

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