Thursday's Underdog MLB Pick: Royals Listed at Great Value vs. Blue Jays

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, July 30, 2015 12:34 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 30, 2015 12:34 PM UTC

Thursday night play features a quality team in excellent current form with the best of it on the mound the entire game.  You will be eager to get the victory and meet Joe in the Winner’s Circle 

KC Royals (Duffy) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Estrada)  7:05 ET
The KC Royals and Toronto Blue Jays begin a 4-game weekend set in Toronto.  The first pitch is at 7:05 ET.  This is a matchup of the best team in baseball in the KC Royals, who come off an embarrassing 12-1 home loss to Cleveland last night, vs. a Toronto Blue Jay team, who, as expected, pounded the Phillies (8-2) on this field on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the Royals enter tonight at 61-39 on a 16-16 run, while the Blue Jays are 51-51 on an 11-16 slide.  

Toronto is one of baseball’s best examples of a great hitting team with below average pitching.  Leading MLB with a .772 OPS in hitting, Toronto has a below average .728 pitching OPS.  If the Blue Jays are to challenge for post-season contention (they are currently 1 of 7 teams in the AL at .500 or better), they will need a better performance from the mound.  Respect is given to tonight’s starting pitcher, Estrada, and a 1.09 home WHIP.  But, the Blue Jays have won just 3 of 7 Estrada home starts.  In his most recent outing, the inconsistent Estrada pitched 4+ IP, allowing 5 runs on 8 hits in a 5-2 loss to poor-hitting Seattle.  

With the acquisition of former Cincinnati pitching ace, Cueto, the Royals become the favorite to win the World Series.  Only overconfidence (they now have a 9-game lead over Minnesota) can prevent the Royals from a .600+ finish.  The small ball concept works to perfection for this team in a year when scoring in MLB approaches 8.0 RPG.  It helps that they have great defense and an outstanding bullpen.  As a result, they have had just 2 mini-slides of a week or less in 2015.  Since returning from a stretch on the DL (biceps), Duffy has a 2.15 ERA in 6 starts.  Reports are that he has returned to full health, pitching outstanding ball in his last 2 starts.  

Must back the best team in MLB at this considerable underdog price!  The Royals are clearly the better team overall, are in better current form and have a pitcher tonight, who has shown consistently in his last 6 starts, while Blue Jays starter, Estrada has been inconsistent.  Make this your underdog play of the day at an outstanding value price!  When you have the better team, who is in the better current form with the best of it on the mound, you must look their way at this considerable underdog price.

MLB Pick: KC Royals (Duffy) +131 at Pinnacle

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