Thursday's Top Totals MLB Picks Offer Lousy Pitching Matchups to Go 'Over'

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, September 17, 2015 4:00 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 17, 2015 4:00 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper shares his two best totals picks on Thursday’s card. Don’t make a move without reading this compelling betting preview article.

Orioles (Tillman) vs. Rays (Moore) 7:10 PM ET
Chris Tillman has been in horrible form over his previous three starts, evidenced by a massive 11.77 ERA and 1.92 WHIP during those outings. Not surprisingly, all three games went over the total. Baltimore has averaged 6.0 runs per outing and amassed an impressive .809 OPS during their last seven games. The Orioles have gone 10-4 over the total in their previous fourteen games.

Matt Moore has displayed terrible form during his last three starts, compiling a sizable 9.94 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, and he allowed 5 home runs in just 12 2/3 innings pitched. Tampa Bay is coming off a 3-1 loss in their previous game against the Yankees. They’ve gone 16-5 over the total at home this season, following a game in which they scored 2 runs or less.


MLB Totals Betting Angle
Baltimore and Tampa Bay are both coming off losses to fellow AL East opponents in their previous game, and each club scored only 1 run in those defeats.

Chris Tillman has an 8.41 ERA during his last five starts.

Matt Moore has posted a 8.42 ERA in his previous five starts.

Any team (Orioles or Rays) coming off a loss to a divisional opponent in which they scored 1 run or less, and has a pitcher (Tillman or Moore) that possesses a 7.00 ERA or worse during his previous five starts, resulted in that home team going 27-8 (77.1%) over the total since 2013.

MLB Pick: Orioles and Rays Over 8 at TheGreek


Astros (McCullers) vs. Rangers (Lewis) 8:05 PM ET
Lance McCullers has been extremely shaky on the road this season, going 1-8 in his team starts with a lofty 4.93 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.

Colby Lewis is coming off a brilliant start against Oakland in which he tossed a 2 hit complete game shutout. However, prior to that outing, Lewis had a mammoth 8.62 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in three starts. The Texas hurler has gone 11-2 over the total at home this season, and those contests averaged a combined 13.4 runs scored per game.

These two starting pitchers squared off on 8/3 during a 12-9 Rangers win. Both right-handers were brutal in those starts. McCullers last just 1/3 of an inning, and allowed 6 earned runs on 7 hits while walking 1. Lewis wasn’t nearly as bad, but was still awful nonetheless, surrendering 7 earned runs on 10 hits in 6.0 innings.

I like this game to be a high scoring affair, and one of my MLB picks today will reflect that prediction. According to current MLB odds at 5Dimes, they’ll allow us to lay the least amount of juice for this wager.

MLB Pick:  Astros and Rangers Over 9 at 5Dimes

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