Thursday's Top 'Over/Under' Picks: Pitching Duels & Pitching Fools

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, July 9, 2015 3:01 PM GMT

One matchup on Thursday's baseball betting lines which stands out to this handicapper features a good ol' fashioned pitching duel. The other matchup is a lock pick over the run total odds.

Tigers (Price) vs. Twins (Pelfrey) 8:10 PM ET
There aren’t many holes that I can poke pertaining to David Price’s performance line this year, considering he’s compiled a 2.69 ERA in 17 starts. However, the star southpaw hurler has gone 28-13 over the total in his career as a money line road favorite of -125 to -175. The Tigers have gone over the total an incredible 19 games in a row. Detroit has averaged a robust 6.9 runs per game during their last seven, and possess a sizzling .340 team batting average during that time.

Mike Pelfrey has displayed absolutely horrible form during his previous three starts. During that time he posted a huge 9.94 ERA and 2.76 WHIP. As a matter of fact, Pelfrey hasn’t reached the 6th inning in three of his previous five starts, and had a sizable 8.51 ERA during those outings. The Twins have fared very well versus southpaw starting pitchers this season, going 19-11, and averaged a healthy 5.4 runs per game. Minnesota is 18-6 over the total at home since 2014 when facing an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or less.

I’m going to ride the tidal wave of games going over the total in Tigers contests during recent weeks. One of my MLB picks on Thursday will be reflective of that sentiment. Pinnacle has the best value in that regard.

MLB Picks: Play on the Tigers and Twins over 8.0 (+102)

 

Angels (Richards) vs. Mariners (Hernandez) 10:10 PM ET
Garrett Richards has gone 6-1 under the total in his career starts versus Seattle since 2012, and posted a terrific 1.76 ERA in those outings. The Angels hurler has also displayed very good form in his last four starts overall, evidenced by a 1.91 ERA during that time. The Angels have gone 20-10 under the total this season as a money line underdog of +100 or more.

Felix Hernandez has made seven starts versus the Angels since 5/28/2014. All seven games went under the total, and “King Felix” was a major reason why. In those outings he posted a miniscule 0.56 ERA. It’s no secret that Seattle has been one of the worst hitting teams in the American League this season.

This has all the makings of an old fashioned pitcher’s duel. These teams have seen seven of their nine meetings go under the total this season. 5Dimes allows us to have the best betting value on this total.

MLB Picks: Play on the Angels and Mariners under 7.0 (-110) at 5Dimes.

Share your Over/Under Picks with these bettors in the SBR Forum