Thursday's MLB Over/Under Picks: Bottom Feeders & Stellar Pitchers

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, July 2, 2015 12:28 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 2, 2015 12:28 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapping professional has gone 18-9 right here at SBR in the last eight days. Today he's focusing on the Milwaukee/Philadelphia and Texas/Baltimore for his MLB picks on totals

Brewers (Garza) vs. Phillies (Billingsley) 6:35 PM ET
Matt Garza has been in terrible form during his previous three starts. He posted a large 8.50 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, and allowed 5 home runs in just 18.0 innings during those outings. Garza has gone 5-1-1 over the total during road starts this season, posting an awful 7.51 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, and he surrendered 9 home runs in only 44 1/3 innings pitched. The Brewers have averaged 5.3 runs per game, hit .297 as a team, and had an outstanding .450 slugging percentage during their last seven.

The Phillies enter today having gone 10-1-1 over the total in their previous twelve games. They’ve allowed 6.1 runs per game and opponents have a team batting average of .326 in the last seven. The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average of 12.7 hits per game during their previous thirteen outings. Philadelphia has also averaged 5.7 runs scored per game in the last ten. They’ll be facing a starting pitcher (Garza) tonight who’s allowed an average of 1.07 home runs per start. The Phillies are 8-0 over the total in 2015 when facing a starter that allows 1.0 or more home runs per game.

This has all the signs of a high scoring game, and that’s the direction I’ll be going when making one of my MLB picks for Thursday. At the time of this writing, Pinnacle provides the best price in that regard.

MLB Pick: Brewers and Phillies over 8.0 (-105) at Pinnacle.

Betting on totals? Don't miss these important pitching stats for over/under bettors

Rangers (Gallardo) vs. Orioles (Gausman) 7:05 PM ET
Yavoni Gallardo has been brilliant during his last six starts, posting a microscopic 0.69 ERA, and that includes allowing no earned runs in his previous three outings. Gallardo hasn’t surrendered a home run in any of his last seven starts. He’s gone 10-5-1 under the total in 2015 with an impressive 2.72 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. The Rangers are 17-7-2 under the total in their last 26 games.

The Orioles Kevin Gausman will make his second start of the season today. He was solid in his 2015 debut start, allowing 2 earned runs, 4 hits, and walking 1 in 5.0 innings during a 5-3 win at Toronto on 6/20. Gausman has pitched a combined 17.0 innings this year which also includes relief appearances, and compiled a very good 1.24 WHIP. The Orioles bullpen has been terrific in 2015, evidenced by a collective 2.82 ERA. Baltimore is 4-1-1 under the total in their last six games.

I like this game to be a low scoring affair. Sportsbetting provides me the best price pertaining to making an under wager.

MLB Pick: Rangers and Orioles under 8.5 (+100) at Sportsbetting.

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