Thursday Player Props Picks: Reds' Duvall Is Going Yard!

adam duvall

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, July 27, 2017 7:13 PM GMT

Post All-Star break has not been kind to us so far, but luckily the month of July still has time, meaning we have two-plus months to get back in the black. We will have to take a few risks, but I have one tonight that could really pay off if we get a home run from a certain Reds slugger.

Season MLB Props Record: 17-21 (-6.70 units)

Will Adam Duvall Hit A Home Run?

It’s a risky proposition to wager on Duvall hitting a home run. If you’re already down some because of our recent poor plays, this will either make you love me or hate me. However, I got a great feeling about Duvall going yard tonight in Miami.

For starters, he is hitting .303 against left-handers this season, with a .402 wOBA, and 7 home runs over 99 plate appearances. That’s just the beginning. His isolated power goes up 60 points to .303 when he is hitting against southpaws, and now we get to his opponent tonight, Chris O’Grady.

O’Grady’s time in the majors has been brief, so it’s hard to judge him on just three starts and 15 innings of work. However, during those 15 innings, right-handed hitters have a .417 wOBA, and over 42 righties faced this season he’s already given up two long balls.

The game being in Marlins Park doesn’t add much value to this one, but I’m giving Duvall a one-in-three chance of hitting a homer. If Duvall can get three at bats against O’Grady, I’m putting some down on him hitting one.

Free MLB Pick: Yes (+375)Best Lines Offered: Bovada

 

Yoenis Cespedes O/U 2 ½ Runs, Hits & RBI

The Mets have had plenty of issues this season already, but they have a very small issue of facing off against a sneaky good right-hander in Luis Perdomo. He has been pretty good against righties this season, and he has been even better pitching in Petco Park against right-handers.

Cespedes can get a hit off anyone, but the biggest danger to taking the 'under' to this prop is the long ball. Playing in Petco along with Cespedes’ splits against righties alleviates that somewhat. Cespedes’ isolated power falls from .373 against lefties to just .177.

Combined with a matchup against Perdomo, that’s the trifecta of fades going against Cespedes here. I am taking the 'under,' despite the chalk, and hoping Cespedes has a rough, or somewhat average evening. As long as we don’t get any homers from him, I love this prop.

Free MLB Pick: 'Under' 2½ (-145)