Thursday Player Prop Picks: Where There's (Justin) Smoak, There's Fire

justin smoak

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, August 10, 2017 7:28 PM GMT

Jose Altuve didn’t show up for us Wednesday and Miguel Gonzalez unfortunately did However, we are slowly working our way back to making some nice prop plays, so all we need is a few days of winning days before getting our bankroll back in the black.

Season MLB Props Record: 20-26-2 (-8.70 units)

Justin Smoak O/U 2 Runs, Hits and RBIs

Smoak is having a career year and while the Blue Jays haven’t been able to follow suit, it’s still impressive what the All-Star first baseman has been able to do in Toronto. However, he is up against the Yankees' Sonny Gray tonight, and that has Bovada sportsbook lowering their odds on Smoak to just 2 runs, hits and RBIs tonight. While Smoak has crushed left-handed pitching this season when he is batting from the right side, he has not been bad from the other side of the plate.

Smoak is hitting a respectable .266 against right-handed pitching this season, but a look deeper into some of his advanced stats makes the 'over' pretty attractive here, even against Gray. Smoak owns a .376 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, and his power has been better batting against righties from the left side of the plate.

With an impressive .431 wOBA in the second half and some pretty strong splits at home as well, I think Smoak can get the better of Gray.

Free MLB Pick: 'Over' 2 (-115)Best Line Offered Both: Bovada

 

Eric Hosmer O/U 2½ Runs, Hits and RBIs

The Royals' Hosmer is another AL first baseman having a smashing season, but the month of August has not been kind to him. He’s hitting only .216 this month with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs over his last 37 at bats.

The heat of the summer may be a factor, but tonight the only thing I care about is keeping him under 2½ runs, hits and RBIs vs. the Cardinals. Hosmer is facing off against Lance Lynn, who has been murderous against right-handed hitters this season.

Lynn is holding righties to a .177 batting average and a .248 wOBA over 277 total batters faced. He has allowed only nine homers to those 277 batters, and when he is at home he gets even better. Righties are hitting just .160 against him at Busch Stadium, and he has been lights out since the All-Star Break.

Even though Hosmer could unload one on just one swing and ruin this prop, I think the sharps are with us. The juice on the 'under' has moved all the way to -155, which is right on the border for me on plays I’m willing to recommend.

Even though Hosmer is one of the more dangerous hitters in the AL Central, I see Lynn getting the better of him. Hosmer is 0-for-3 lifetime against Lynn, so here’s to hoping he is 0-for-6 or 0-for-7 after tonight.

Free MLB Pick: 'Under' 2½ (-155)