It was only a matter of time before we got back on the horse and Wednesday proved to be a huge night for our prop betting picks. We nailed both, including a +125 play on Joey Votto, but even with the shorter slate on Thursday, I have another pair to get us more profit tonight.
Albert Pujols is a future hall of famer for major league baseball, but even that and his recent surge at the plate is not enough for Bovada sportsbook to raise his runs, hits and RBI total for Thursday night.
Pujols and the Angels are up against right-hander Jerad Eickhoff, and while the young Phillies starter has not been bad this season, he hasn’t been good either. Over his last three starts his ground ball rate has been down and his walk rate has been up.
These things, combined with the solid cleanup hitting of Pujols, should be enough to get us the over on this prop. I would probably have just left this prop alone if the number was 2 ½, but since Bovada is gifting us a total of 2 tonight, take the over at the smooth price of -105.Free MLB Pick: OVER 2 (-105)Best Line Offered: at Bovada Yonder Alonso O/U 2 runs, hits and RBI
Unlike Pujols, Yonder Alonso has a much tougher assignment tonight, and despite a total of just 2 runs, hits and RBI as well I am going the other direction with the A’s slugger.
Tonight the A’s continued their home-and-home series with the Giants, and the series’ final game is tonight in San Francisco with Ty Blanch on the hill. The Giants’ young southpaw has been pretty impressive in his first full season in the majors, and tonight he is up against a lineup that should play into his hands at home.
At home lefties has just a .300 wOBA against Blanch, and overall this season left-handed hitters have just a .285 wOBA against him. He has better splits at home as well, with a 3.88 ERA at home compared to one over 5 on the road.
The best part about trusting Blanch to slow down Alonso tonight is his ground ball rate against lefties, which is a solid 52.6%. Lefties still hit the ball hard against him, but it’s mostly been on the ground.
To top it off, Alonso probably has to play first base in this one because there is no DH, and against fellow southpaws, he is hitting just .188 over 72 plate appearances. Alonso also has an increased ground ball rate against lefties, so I’m looking for an 0-for day for him at the plate.Free MLB Pick: UNDER 2 (-105)Best Line Offered: at Bovada