Thursday, April 27th MLB Picks of the Day

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Mark Lathrop

Thursday, April 27, 2017 12:35 PM GMT

Thursday, Apr. 27, 2017 12:35 PM GMT

Thursday's card features two winning teams in situations where they can be backed at a reasonable price. As a result, our MLB handicapper looks to back them both.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/UbUGR0UR4-8", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]     Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants

 

Even though San Francisco is a strong 17-5 against the Dodgers at home over the last three seasons, the pitching matchup is just too lopsided to ignore here.

Julio Urias starts for the Dodgers on Thursday at AT&T Park, and if the youngster gets knocked out of the game early he can’t even go get a beer. At only 20 years old, Urias is one of the youngest starting pitchers in the MLB right now. This will be his first start of the season after putting up decent numbers in 77 innings pitched in 2016. Over 15 starts, Urias put up a 3.17 FIP, 88.7 LOB%, 51 GB%, and a minuscule 6.5% HR/FB rate. He’s started against the Giants just once, striking out 7 and walking one while giving up 2 earned runs in 5.1 innings pitched.

Matt Moore takes the mound for the Giants, and he has seen his HR/FB% jump up to 16.1% in this early part of the season. His batted ball statistics exhibit a troubling increase in hard hit balls, with the percentage jumping from 30.8% to 41.5% this season over last. Add that in with a naughty 11% soft hit ball rate and you have a pitcher that is getting squared up. I can say all of this without seeing Moore pitch once this season. As the Giants 3.1 runs per game average at home doesn’t inspire much confidence that they can overcome another shaky performance by Moore, I’m going to take the visiting Dodgers on the moneyline as one of my Thursday MLB Picks of the day.

 Free MLB Pick: Dodgers -137Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Indians

 

Even without some important cogs in the lineup on Wednesday, the pesky Astros kept it close against Trevor Bauer and the Indians. Look for them to do it again on Thursday night.

The Astros were in the midst of an 8-2 SU run before losing 7-6 to the Indians on Wednesday night. They were missing some important pieces of their lineup after a Jose Altuve and Teoscar Hernandez collision on Tuesday. Both were out of the game as well as George Springer on Wednesday night. Altuve is expected back on Thursday to face Corey Kluber and the Indians.

Kluber has lost his last two starts against Houston, both last year. He’s coming off of a complete-game shutout on the road against the White Sox after not pitching more than 6.1 innings in each of his first three starts. The start sticks out to me because of the White Sox poor offense, and because Kluber had giving up 13 runs in his prior 18.1 innings pitched. His only start at home he gave up 6 earned runs, so against a pesky Houston lineup I don’t think he is in line to pitch another shutout.

Mike Fiers gets the start for Houston and he has had huge issues with the long ball so far this year. He’s given up six home runs over his first 3 starts and 15 innings. That’s good for a 33.3% small sample HR/FB%, which obviously can’t continue. On paper, he’s obviously the reason why Cleveland is a steep -170 moneyline favorite. But that means the run line is reasonable, and with a pesky team like Houston that is valuable, so I will be taking Houston +1.5 runs as another MLB selection.

 

Free MLB Pick: Houston +1.5 Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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