Three Ways to Beat Friday's MLB Odds with Total Run Predictions

Ross Benjamin

Friday, June 19, 2015 2:40 PM UTC

Friday, Jun. 19, 2015 2:40 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapping professional provides with three totals on Friday’s card. The games being covered in this betting preview article are between the Giants/Dodgers, Orioles/Blue Jays, and Rangers/White Sox.

Giants (Heston) vs. Dodgers (Bolsinger) 10:10 PM ET
The Giants Chris Heston has been very good during his last two starts. As a matter of fact, one of those outings was a no hitter at Citi Field in New York versus the Mets. The Giants are 6-1 under the total in their previous seven games. During that time they’ve averaged just 2.3 runs per game and hit a dismal .199 as a team.

The Dodgers Mike Bolsinger is 4-0 in his team starts at home this year, posting an excellent 1.01 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, and compiling a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Dodgers have averaged 2.0 runs and 7.1 hits per game during their previous six outings. They also went 5-1 under the total in those six games.

These teams have seen six of their nine meetings in 2015 stay under the total. My lean is on a low scoring affair tonight, and Heritage provides me with the best value.

MLB Pick:  Giants and Dodgers under 7.5 (-115)


Orioles (Wright) vs. Blue Jays (Estrada) 7:07 PM ET
The Orioles Mike Wright has displayed horrible form over his last three starts. In those outings he posted a large 8.36 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and allowed 4 home runs in only 14.0 innings pitched. Baltimore is averaging 7.6 runs per game and hitting a robust .294 as a team over their previous seven contests.

The Blue Jays Marco Estrado has gone 3-0 over the total in his last three starts with a lofty 5.00 ERA. That’s been pretty much the norm for Estrada who has a 5.01 ERA in eight starts this season. Toronto is averaging 7.3 runs per game and hitting a very good .288 as a team in their previous seven. They’ve also scored 6 runs or more in eleven of their last fifteen games.

These are two of the best power hitting teams in baseball. Toronto has hit 84 home runs in 68 games this year, and Baltimore has gone yard 82 times in 66 games. My prediction is for these teams to score early and often. One of my MLB picks on Friday will reflect that forecast. Pinnacle provides us with a very favorable price on this total.

MLB Pick: Orioles and Blue Jays over 9.0 (+112)


Rangers (Lewis) vs. White Sox (Sale) 8:10 PM ET
The Rangers Colby Lewis has shown good form during his last three starts, posting a solid 3.43 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and compiling a better than 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Since the beginning of the 2014 MLB campaign, Lewis is 3-0 versus tonight’s opponent and posted an excellent 1.27 ERA in those starts. The Rangers have gone 11-3 under the total in their last fourteen games.

The White Sox Chris Sale has been lights out in his last four starts. During that time he posted a microscopic 0.92 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and better than 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Since 2014 Sale has made two starts versus the Rangers and was dominant with a 1.38 ERA. The White Sox have been anemic offensively of late, averaging 1.0 run per game in their previous five. They’ve also gone 21-8-1 under the total at home in 2015.

I like this game to be a low scoring affair, and Pinnacle provides the best wagering value in that regard.

MLB Pick: Rangers and White Sox under 7.0

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