Three-Game Series Picks & Predictions for Yankees vs. Royals

Darin Zank

Friday, May 15, 2015 12:28 PM GMT

KC grabbed the opener of this series Friday night, breaking through on Yanks starter Michael Pineda. Do we bet New York will extend its four-game losing streak?

16th MAY
Yankees vs. Royals Game 2

By: Ron Patrick

 

 

Game 2 Betting Odds
As of early Saturday AM most of the MLB betting odds were chalking KC and Danny Duffy at around -115 over New York and CC Sabathia, with a total of eight runs.

 

Game 1 Recap
KC scratched out a short lead on New York starter Michael Pineda, then exploded for six runs in the sixth inning and four more in the seventh on its way to a 12-1 victory. The Royals, to our delight, won as +105 post-time betting underdogs, and the game played OVER its total of seven runs.

Kansas City sent Pineda packing with a line of five runs allowed and 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, the Royals got a quality outing from big Chris Young, who held the Yankees to one run and four hits through 5 2/3 innings. He's now allowed just one run over his last 23 2/3 innings.

KC bats rapped out 17 hits Friday, seven for extra bases.

New York, on the other hand, has been held to six runs total during its current four-game losing streak.

 

Saturday's Starters
Duffy is just one-for-seven on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last two. Nine days ago he couldn't get out of the second inning, giving up four runs and six hits against Cleveland, and Monday he got nicked for six runs in less than four innings by Texas. On the season Duffy has allowed 21 ER and 57 base-runners through 33 1/3 innings; somehow, KC is 4-3 in Duffy's starts, with the totals leaning OVER 5-2.

Last year Duffy made basically one start against New York, allowing three runs on five hits and three walks in 5 2/3 innings of an 8-4 Royals win.

Sabathia is only two-for-seven on quality starts this year. Monday he gave up four runs – three earned – in seven innings against Tampa, and just before that he gave up four runs in 6 1/3 innings against Toronto. For the season Sabby has allowed 26 ER and 63 base-runners through 45 innings; New York is just 2-5 in his starts, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS 4-3, mainly because the Yanks have been poor with the run support.

Sabathia last started against the Royals two seasons ago, when he gave up three runs through nine innings of a 3-1 New York defeat.

 

Saturday's Betting Splits
New York owns a .333 team OBP and a .418 team slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season.

Kansas City owns a .365 OBP, second-best in the Majors, and a .458 slugging percentage, also second-best, against lefties this year.

 

Game 2 Free Picks
New York may have lost four in a row, but based on what Duffy's been up to recently we believe the value on today's line lies with the Yankees. Also, we're thinking OVER for our MLB picks.

Free MLB Picks: New York +105 at WagerWeb and OVER eight runs (+105) at Pinnacle

15th MAY
Yankees vs. Royals Series Opener

By: Ron Patrick

 

 

Game 1 Betting Odds
As of early Friday morning most of the MLB betting odds were chalking New York and Michael Pineda at around -125 over KC with Chris Young, with a total of seven runs.

Also, BetOnline was listing the Royals at -125 to win this series, with the Yanks getting +105.

 

Series Set-Up
New York just dropped three of four games at Tampa this week, winning Monday 11-5 but losing Tuesday 4-2, Wednesday 3-2 and Thursday 6-1. The Yankees almost got shut out Thursday, until A-Rod bopped a meaningless homer in the top of the ninth, and have been held to five runs total during their three-game losing streak.

Last weekend the Yanks took three of four from Baltimore. So bigger-picture, at 21-15 New York leads the AL East by a game over the second place Rays.

Also, New York is 11-4-2 on the UNDERS over its last 17 games, in large part because Yankee pitching has been pretty good.

On the homey side of this match-up Kansas City just split four games at Texas this week, losing Monday 8-2, winning Tuesday 7-6, losing Wednesday 5-2 but winning Thursday 6-3. The Royals rapped out 14 hits Thursday, with three doubles and a homer.

Just before that KC took two of three at Detroit; just before that they took two of three from Cleveland; in fact, the Royals haven't lost a series since dropping two of three to the White Sox six series ago.

At 22-13 KC leads the AL Central by a game over the second-place Tigers.

This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year KC, on its way to the American League pennant, took four of seven games from New York, with the totals going 3-4.

 

Friday's Starters
Pineda is four-for-seven on quality starts, and coming off one of the best performances of this ML season so far, after whiffing 16 Orioles last Sunday, with zero walks, allowing one run through seven innings. And just before that he threw eight scoreless against Toronto. On the season Pineda has allowed 14 runs and 44 hits through 46 1/3 innings, with 54 strikeouts against just three walks. New York is 6-1 in Pineda's starts, with the totals going 4-2-1, in part because the Yanks have given him some decent run support.

Last year Pineda started twice against Kansas City, allowing just one earned run and eight hits through 13 1/3 innings; the Yanks split those two games, the loss coming by a score of 1-0.

New York's bullpen threw 6 1/3 innings Thursday, but the way Pineda is throwing that might not be an issue tonight.

Young, who won 12 games for Seattle last year, is technically one-for-two on quality starts this season, but he's been tough. Two weeks ago, in his first start of the season following five appearances in relief, he threw five hit-less innings against Detroit, whiffing nine while walking three; then last Sunday he held those same Tigers to one unearned run and three hits through six innings. The Royals won both those games, and both games played UNDER.

On the season Young has allowed just two ER and seven hits in 23 innings of work, with 19 strikeouts and five walks.

Last year, pitching for Seattle, Young started twice against the Yankees, allowing five ER and 10 hits through 10 2/3 innings; the Mariners split those two games.

 

The Pens
This series features two of the best bullpens in baseball; Kansas City's pen leads the Majors in ERA at 1.65, with 13 saves in 19 chances, while New York's bullpen ranks fifth with a 2.29 ERA, and 15 saves in 17 chances.

 

Friday's Batting Splits
New York owns a .316 team OBP and a .417 team slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season.

Kansas City owns a .327 OBP and a .424 slugging percentage against righties.

 

Betting Trends
The totals are 9-6 in Royals home games this season, as games played at Kauffman Stadium are averaging 8.1 runs per.

 

Game 1 Free Pick
Pineda has been great recently, but Young ain't been too bad himself. And KC owns a slight advantage with the sticks. The value on tonight's line seems to reside with the home dog. And in thinking runs might be hard to come by tonight we like the UNDER for our MLB picks

 

Free MLB Picks: Kansas City +116 at GT Bets and UNDER seven runs (+100) at 5Dimes