With another victory Tuesday night Milwaukee won this series as a huge betting underdog on the MLB odds. Can the Brewers complete the sweep Wednesday night for our MLB picks?
Brewers vs. Tigers Game 3
By: Ron Patrick
Brewers-Tigers Game 3 Betting Odds
As of early Wednesday morning most MLB betting odds were chalking Detroit and Shane Greene at around -160 over Milwaukee and Kyle Lohse, with a total of 8.5 runs.
Game 2 Recap
Milwaukee put up a six-spot in the third inning Tuesday night, with help from consecutive homers from Ryan Braun, Adam Lind and Aramis Ramirez, and Jimmy Nelson fashioned a quality outing from the mound as the Brewers rocked the Tigers 8-1. The Brew Crew won as +140 underdogs on Tuesday's betting line, and the game played OVER its total of 7.5.
Milwaukee was a +170 underdog to win this series, so that’s some nice cash right there, for those who had the balls to make that bet.
The Brewers are now 8-7 under new manager Craig Counsell.
Nelson gave up a run in the bottom of the first, then shut the door from there, in total allowing just three hits through eight innings, walking four while striking out five. In his previous start he allowed three runs in the first against the White Sox, then just one more through the next 5 2/3 innings. If he can just get past the first inning he seems to be alright.
Meanwhile, Detroit starter Anibal Sanchez was charged with seven runs in less than four innings of work, the fourth time already this season he's been tagged for at least five runs in a start.
We backed Detroit on the run line Tuesday, so while we lost our bet we saved ourselves 50 bucks by eschewing the money line.
On a personnel note the Tigers have placed ailing DH Victor Martinez on the DL with that sore knee.
Greene left his last start with tingling in his throwing arm, and that doesn't sound good. After experiencing something like that we have to wonder if Greene is totally healthy, not just physically but also mentally. Can he really let loose? Or will he hold back?
On the season Greene is four-for-eight on quality starts. Last Friday he threw five scoreless innings against St. Louis, before leaving that game, and just before that he held Kansas City to one run through eight innings. On the whole Greene has allowed 22 ER and 44 hits through 47 innings, with 13 walks and 28 strikeouts; Detroit is 5-3 in his starts, with the totals splitting 4-4.
This will be Greene's first-ever start against Milwaukee, which might give him an advantage for at least the first couple of times through the lineup.
Lohse is just two-for-eight on quality starts this season, but is coming off his best performance so far, last Friday, when he held the Mets scoreless on two hits through eight innings, with one walk and eight whiffs. Prior to that Lohse had allowed 11 runs over his last 17 innings. For the season Lohse has given up 31 runs and 47 hits, including 10 homers, through 47 2/3 innings, although his K/BB ratio is pretty good, at 38/10; Milwaukee is 4-4 in Lohse's starts, with the totals leaning OVER by a 4-2-2 margin.
Lohse last faced Detroit back in 2012, when he was with St. Louis.
Wednesday's Batting Splits
The Tigers rank fourth in the Majors with a .753 OPS against right-handed pitching, while the Brewers ranks 20th against righties with a .687 OPS.
Game 3 Free Picks
Milwaukee is playing with just a bit of verve at the moment, and Greene's tingling arm concerns us. The value on today's line resides with the Brewers. Also, we could easily see this game getting to 5-4, so we like the OVER for our MLB picks.
Free MLB Picks: Milwaukee +145 at GTBets and OVER 8.5 runs (-105) at BetDSI
Brewers vs. Tigers Game 2
By: Ron Patrick
Game 2 Betting Odds
As of early Tuesday morning MLB betting odds were chalking Detroit and Anibal Sanchez at around -185 over Milwaukee and Jimmy Nelson, with a total of eight runs.
Game 1 Recap
Carlos Gomez, one day after getting beaned in the head, led off Monday's game with a homer and later broke a tie game with an RBI single, helping Milwaukee to a 3-2 victory. The Brewers won Monday as +105 underdogs, evening their record under their new manager at 7-7, and the game stayed UNDER a total of 8.5.
Milwaukee starter Mike Fiers came up one out short of a quality start, allowing two runs through 5 2/3 innings, while Detroit starter Kyle Lobstein allowed three runs through 6 2/3 innings.
Even with the victory the Brewers were held to three runs or less for the fifth time in their last six games.
Detroit, meanwhile, has now been held to three runs or less in six of its last nine games.
Francisco Rodriguez set the Tigers down in the ninth for his eighth save this season in eight chances. We're beginning to wonder how much longer he'll be a Brewer.
In an injury note Detroit's Victor Martinez, who started last night for the first time in nearly a week, tweaked a knee and is uncertain for Tuesday night. Also, Detroit rested OF Yoenis Cespedes Monday night. Bettors might want to check the lineups before betting tonight's game.
At first glance we didn't realize, but Sanchez is five-for-eight on quality starts this season, and four for his last five. Last Thursday he held Minnesota to one run through eight innings, with nine strikeouts, which was a nice bounce-back effort after getting nicked for five earned runs in six innings five days previous against Kansas City. On the season Sanchez has allowed 27 ER – nine in one game - and 48 hits through 51 innings, with 13 walks and 46 strikeouts; Detroit is 3-5 in Sanchez' starts, with the totals going 5-3.
Sanchez last started against Milwaukee back in 2012, when he was with Miami.
Nelson, by our tough accounting, is three-for-seven on quality starts this season. Last Wednesday he gave up four runs through 6 2/3 innings against the White Sox, although three of those runs came in the first inning. And over his last three starts he's allowed 10 ER through 20 1/3 innings. On the season Nelson has given up 20 ER and 35 hits through 42 2/3 innings, with 14 walks and 38 strikeouts; the Brewers are 2-5 in Nelson's starts, with the totals going 3-4.
Nelson has never started against Detroit.
Tuesday's Batting Splits
Milwaukee ranks 23rd in the Majors with a .673 team OPS against right-handed pitching this season.
Detroit ranks second with a .766 OPS against righties.
Game 2 Free Picks
Sanchez gets the check-mark in the pitching comparison, so we like the Tigers to take Game 2 tonight. And while it's always a bit of a gamble we'll take the home team on the run line. Also, we could easily see this game getting to 6-3, so we're thinking OVER for our MLB pick.
Brewers vs. Tigers Series Opener
By: Ron Patrick
Brewers-Tigers Game 1 Betting Odds
As of early Monday morning Detroit and Kyle Lobstein were favored on the MLB betting odds by around -145 over Milwaukee and Mike Fiers, with a total of 8.5 runs. Also, Bovada was listing the Tigers at -210 to win this series, with the Brewers getting +170 as the dogs.
Detroit just took two of three games at St. Louis over the weekend, winning 10-4 Friday and 4-3 Saturday but missing out on the sweep by losing Sunday night 2-1. Just before that the Tigers took two of three from Minnesota, breaking a two-series losing “streak.” Actually, since an 11-2 start to this season Detroit is only 12-13.
So at 23-15 the Tigers sit in second place in the AL Central, one game behind first-place Kansas City.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at the Mets over the weekend, winning Friday 7-0 but losing Saturday 14-1 and Sunday 5-1. Just before that the Brewers lost two of three to the White Sox; just before that they took two of three from the Cubs. Milwaukee has won two series this season, both against the Cubbies.
The Brewers are also now 6-7 since firing manager Ron Roenicke, replacing him with Craig Counsell.
So Milwaukee, at 13-25 overall, sits in last place in the NL Central, 8.5 games out of the running in the battle for the second NL wild-card spot.
Milwaukee has scored just 13 runs over its last five games, and seven of those came in one game.
These former divisional rivals haven't met since 2009
Lefty Lobstein is three-for-six on quality starts this season, but is coming off a poor outing last Wednesday against the Twins, giving up six runs in less than three innings. But just before that he held the White Sox to one unearned run through 7 2/3 innings. For the season Lobstein has allowed 17 ER and 39 hits through 35 1/3 innings, with a pedestrian K/BB ratio of 16/12; the Tigers are 3-3 in Lobstein's starts, with the totals leaning UNDER 4-2.
Fiers is only two-for-seven on quality starts this season, but both those came in his last three outings. Two weeks ago he held the Cubs to one run through six innings, with 12 strikeouts; just after that he gave up five runs in five innings against the Dodgers; but last Tuesday he held the White Sox to two runs through 6 1/3 innings. On the season Fiers has allowed 20 ER and 42 hits through 36 innings, with a pretty good K/BB ratio of 49/15; the Brewers are 2-5 in Fiers' starts, with the totals leaning OVER 4-3.
Detroit relievers rank seventh in the Majors with a 3.02 ERA, with 13 saves in 15 chances; the Milwaukee pen ranks 20th in ERA at 4.14, with seven saves in nine chances.
Monday's Batting Splits
Milwaukee ranks dead last in the Majors with a .234 team OBP against left-handed pitching this season. The Brewers get to use a DH for this series, but we're wondering if it will even matter.
Detroit ranks second in the Majors with a .342 OBP against right-handed pitching.
The Brewers are already playing without C Jonathan Lucroy and SS Jean Segura, who are both on the DL, and OF Carlos Gomez got beaned in the head Sunday, and is uncertain for Monday. With three key guys missing time this season it's no wonder Milwaukee stinks.
Game 1 Free Pick
Fiers may hold an edge in the pitching match-up, but the Brewers bats struggle against LHP. And the price on the better team – the Tigers - isn't too prohibitive. We like the home team to take the opener of this series. Also, with a little help from the Milwaukee bullpen this game should play OVER the total for your MLB picks.