Think Twice Before Backing Tigers Over A's: MLB Betting Statistics Forecast Turn-Around for Oakland

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, June 3, 2015 2:07 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 3, 2015 2:07 PM UTC

Take advantage of this experienced sports handicapper's tips as he shares free MLB picks for tonight's match between the Oakland A's and the Detroit Tigers.

Oakland A’s (Gray) (-105) vs. Detroit Tigers (A. Sanchez) 7:05 ET
MLB odds are fairly tight for tonight's game, as Oakland won the first of this early week, 3-game set against Detroit by a score of 5-3 last night.  Tonight, they continue their series with Oakland’s ace, Sonny Gray, on the mound, while Detroit sends struggling Anibal Sanchez to the mound.  Not only are these pitchers headed opposite directions, but so are the teams.  We line up with the Oakland A’s in this momentum mismatch, both at the plate and on the mound.

The Detroit Tigers had a hunch this season would not be as easy as the previous three, in which they averaged over 90 wins per year.  Their top two pitching aces are gone from the rotation.  Scherzer was traded to Washington, while Verlander has been on the DL the entire season.  There were high hopes for Sanchez to fill the void at the top of the rotation, as he had been one of the most consistent MLB starters in the last 2 years.  But, Sanchez has been unable to step up when needed!  His numbers reflect that.  These include a PLAY AGAINST 1.53 WHIP and .786 OPS.  Unfortunately for Detroit, Sanchez has done his worst work from this mound.  In his 7 most recent starts at Comerica Park, Sanchez has a 6.81 ERA.  Though he allowed just 2 runs in 7 IP in a 2-0 loss to LAA last time out, his previous 2 outings saw him allow 14 runs in 9 1/3 IP.  Detroit has also struggled at the plate of late, scoring just 17 runs in their last 8 games.  It is a major reason why they enter today on a 5 game losing streak.  It is most likely that the turnaround does not come tonight against Oakland and Gray. 

In today’s article entitled “OPS Index Buy and Sell Ratings,” available on this site, we find that no team has a bigger buy rating than the Oakland A’s.  The turnaround has already begun.  If you review the article, you will see that Oakland has a combined OPS Index of +45, good for the No. 4 Index ranking in the American League.  Yet, they have the worst W/L record in the American League.  Having proven in recent articles that there is a direct correlation between OPS ratings and W/L records, it is clear that Oakland, a team who owns more wins than other MLB team in the previous 3 seasons, is on the comeback trail.  That resurgence has already begun!  Following an error-plagued, 2-14 slide, Oakland has gone 7-3 with the starters leading the way with a 1.54 ERA.  No one has been more consistent than today’s starter, Sonny Gray.  For the YTD, Gray features PLAY ON numbers which include a 1.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a .511 OPS, all among the best in the League. Gray has allowed 2 or less runs in 9 of 11 starts this year.  Gray is also one of the best road starters in MLB.  21 recent road starts have resulted in a record of 2.45 ERA.  

With the OPS Buy Ratings confirming this selection, we are eager to place MLB picks backing the positive momentum of Oakland and Gray against the negative momentum of Detroit and Sanchez.

MLB Picks: Athletics -108 at Bovada

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