These Two Dodgers vs. Mets MLB Picks Are Locks For Sunday

Kevin Stott

Sunday, May 29, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Sunday, May. 29, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Let’s look at recent games in this series, both scheduled hurlers, Sunday night’s Weather Forecast and use some Common Sense in making our MLB picks on Dodgers vs. Mets.

The Los Angeles Dodgers send left-handed ace Clayton Kershaw to the mound at Citi Field in Queens, New York on Sunday night against veteran right-hander Bartolo Colon in the nationally televised final game of this competitive NL series. When these two pitchers met at Chavez Ravine earlier this season, Kershaw shut out the Mets so can we expect the same here in The Big Apple? Let’s look at recent games in this series, both scheduled hurlers, Sunday night’s Weather Forecast and use some Common Sense in making our MLB Picks in what looks like a very tough spot for the hosts, especially in the Mets win Saturday night’s Game 2.


Odds Overview
The Los Angeles Dodgers (25-24 into Saturday night) and scheduled starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 1.48 ERA, 97 K’s) will be in Queens and Citi Field on Sunday night to face the New York Mets (28-19 into Saturday night) and veteran right-hander Bartolo Colon (43, 3.44 ERA, 42 K’s) in Game 3 of this 3-game series between two franchises which originated in The Big Apple with the Dodgers moving from Brooklyn to Lalaland in 1958. Offshore oddsmakers have opened up Kershaw and the visiting Dodgers as big -180 (The Greek) to -190 (Bookmaker) Road favorites with Kershaw on the bump with the host Mets priced at +161 (The Greek) to +174 (Heritage) Home Underdogs with the game’s Total (Runs) opening at 6 (Under -108, Heritage). In Game 1 on Friday night (NYM -108, 7, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), the Mets started right-hander Jacob deGrom against Dodgers 19-year-old phenom Julio Urías and the teenager was rocked in his MLB debut, allowing 3 ER and lasting just 2 2/3 IP as the host Mets built a 5-1 lead as they continued to hit the longball with David Wright and Juan Lagares going deep but Los Angeles rallied to tie it 5-5 before losing 6-5 on a Curtis Granderson HR in the Bottom of the 9th. The Mets were also favored in Game 2 on Saturday (NYM -145, 6½, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) with a scheduled Kenta Maeda-Noah Syndergaard pitching duel on tap (FOX, 7 p.m. EDT).


Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers (22/1 to win World Series, Ladbrokes) and first-year Manager Dave Roberts headed into this inter-divisional NL series on a nice little roll, having W4 and outscoring opponents 21-8, starting with a 17-inning win (9-5) over the Padres in San Diego on Sunday in the final game of that Southern California series followed by a 3-game Sweep of the Reds at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles with the lowly visitors (Cincinnati, L11) scoring just 3 Runs in 3 games and being shut out by Kershaw, 1-0 in a 2-hitter in Game 2 of the series. In Game 1 on Friday night against the Metropolitans, Roberts put out a Starting Lineup of: 2B Chase Utley, SS Corey Seager, 3B Justin Turner, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, LF Howie Kendrick, CF Joc Pederson, RF Yasiel Puig, C Yasmani Grandal with the aforementioned 19-year-old Julio Urías getting his first MLB start. Utley (1-2) was the offensive hero for the visitors, and the veteran 2B blasted a bases-clearing Double and ended with 4 RBI while Seager was 2-for-5 and Gonzalez was 2-for-4 with 2 Singles. The Loss left Los Angeles (2/1 to win NL West, Paddy Power) a paltry 1-5 in its L6 on the Road and 2-12 in its L14 on the Road vs. teams with .600+ Winning Percentage. The Dodgers (12/1 to win NL, Ladbrokes) are off to the North Side of Chicago and the friendly confines of Wrigley Field to play the NL Central-leading Cubs in a 4-game series starting on Monday—the Memorial Day holiday in the US—with Los Angeles LHP Alex Wood (1-3) scheduled to pitch against Cubs right-hander Jason Hammel (6-1).


New York Mets
The New York Mets (14/1 to win World Series, Ladbrokes) and Manager Terry Collins are quietly playing some pretty good Baseball of late, beating good teams (10-3 L13 vs. teams with Winning Record), getting decent Pitching and Defense and smacking a couple of HRs each game for good measure en route to a 7-3 mark in their L10 heading into Saturday’s Game 2. And Friday’s 6-5 Win in Game 1 was a perfect example of this, although the Mets Bullpen failed to seal the deal and the hosts needed a HR from Granderson to send everyone happy on a May Friday night as New York (+130 to win NL East, Paddy Power) won its 3rd straight game. In the victory, Collins put out a Starting Lineup of: RF Curtis Granderson, SS Asdrúbal Cabrera, 3B David Wright, LF Yoenis Céspedes, 2B Neil Walker, CF Juan Lagares, C Kevin Plawecki, 1B Eric Campbell with ace Jacob deGrom getting the pill. At the plate, Lagares was 3-for-4 with 3 RBI while Walker was the only only other Met with multiple Hits (Single, Double, RBI). New York batters struck out 12 times and the Mets (7/1 to win NL, Ladbrokes) had 9 men LOB.


Clayton Kershaw is simply in a stone cold groove right now and the thought of fading the Dodgers when the All-Star lefty gets the pill is hard enough when he’s pitching “normal” Kershaw, but when he’s on like he has been of late, opponents even scoring a single Run seems like a small victory and backing Los Angeles is the logical call. And handicapping or looking at Totals when Kershaw (7-1, 1.48 ERA, 97 K’s, 0.66 WHIP) pitches requires looking at the game almost backwards from the Total which will be a low as a Total can go, depending on opponent, Site and all of the other variables and realities oddsmakers use to come up with their (Totals) number. When Kershaw faced the Mets at Dodger Stadium in the last series between these two teams, the 6-3, 225-pound native of Dallas shut out New York, 5-0, holding the Metropolitans to just 3 Hits—two Singles by Melky Cabrera and a Double from Curtis Granderson—walking just one batter and striking out 13 in going the full 9 innings for the win on May 12. And if a 3-hit Shutout wasn’t minimalistic enough, Kershaw (121-57, 2.39 ERA, 1,841 K’s 1.02 WHIP Lifetime) threw a 2-hit Shutout in his last outing on May 23, winning 1-0 against the Cincinnati Reds, striking out 7 and retiring the L17 Redlegs he faced. The Shutout was Kershaw’s third of the month (year) and he has allowed only 5 Walks all season and is in a nice little groove where he has allowed just 3 ER over the L42 IP, so this is definitely a spot to back Los Doyers (2-7 L9 vs. NL East) despite the Site and especially if the Mets win Game 2.

Forty-three year-old Bartolo Colón (4-3, 3.44 ERA, 42 K’s, 1.22 WHIP) had his worst start of the year against the Dodgers—that aforementioned 5-0 Loss to southpaw Kershaw at Chavez Ravine—allowing 5 Earned Runs in 5 IP. And two veteran left-handed hitting Dodgers have had great success against 18-year veteran Colón in 2B Chase Utley and 1B Adrian Gonzalez. Utley is hitting a blistering .556 (10-18, HR, 3 RBI) against Colón while Gonzalez is hitting .526 against Colón over the L5 years and .444 lifetime (12-27, 2 2Bs, 2 HRs). And they both had good games Friday. So those 6-8 Plate Appearances could be troublesome for the hosts and Colón, who will probably try to be very careful with Utley and Gonzalez, especially with the dude on the hill from the opposing team (Kershaw) having the kind of month he’s having. Yasiel Puig is 0-for-7 the L5 seasons against Colón while OF’s Carl Crawford (0-7) and Joc Pederson (0-4) are both hitless vs. the rotund (5-11, 283 pounds) righty. Few of the current Mets on this Roster have had many Plate Appearances (and at Bats) against Kershaw in the L5 years with Granderson hitting .182 in 11 ABs, David Wright (.200) with 2 Hits and an RBI in 10 ABs, Yoenis Céspedes hitless (0-6) with SS Asdrúbal Cabrera (2-7, .286) having the most success.


Besides projected starting Pitcher Kershaw, the Dodgers have been playing some pretty good baseball since winning in the 17th Inning in San Diego a week ago Sunday (May 22) to avoid being swept by the Padres. And it always seems teams play their best Defense and the batters focus in a little more when an ace and perennial All-Star like Kershaw is on the mound. So this handicap is made easy by Kershaw’s and the Mets’ presence combined presence as one (the player, Kershaw) never lets anyone score lately while the other (the team, the Mets)—although playing pretty well themselves and hitting 13 HRs in W6 of 7 heading into Saturday—always seem to struggle against Kershaw. But then again, who hasn’t and who doesn’t? And even though the two split their 4-game series in California, the fact Kershaw is starting is easily the most powerful element in this particular handicap and expecting him to throw a Shutout or allow 2 or less Runs here seems very logical. And when can we as (MLB) Sports Gamblers expect a Pitcher to throw a Shutout? When guys like Kershaw or the Cubs Jake Arrieta or Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Orel Hershiser or Fernando Valenzuela back in the day. It’s a rare thing, but when it happens, best to just pay attention and to just keep riding the Horse in the direction he’s going. It’s much easier.

The Weather Forecast (The Weather Channel) for Flushing, New York on Sunday night calls for Cloudy conditions with occasional Showers with Thunder possible (60% chance Rain), a High of 65°, S Winds of 10-15 mph and 86% Humidity, so a lot of Precipitation (Water) potentially in the atmosphere making the ball seem even heavier and harder to hit. Everything says this will be a night for the Pitchers and after getting shelled by Los Doyers the last time he threw baseball in their general direction, expecting a better performance from Colón seems logical but then again all starters matched up against Kershaw seemingly have to pitch their best game, usually helping to keep the MLB Odds' Totals (as well as scoring) down. This one may end up resembling a Soccer match with little scoring.

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Free MLB Pick:  Dodgers -180 & Under 6 -108
Best Line Offered:  at The Greek & Heritage
Final Score: Dodgers 3 Mets 0
Record: Week: 1-1, Season: 13-11-0

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