The Over Carries Value As Blue Jays & Mariners Are Set To Trade Lots Of Runs

Toronto Blue Jays Batter

Charles Stark

Wednesday, September 21, 2016 12:19 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 21, 2016 12:19 PM UTC

A crucial series with wild card spots being contested, as the Mariners and Blue Jays collide in Seattle. Our expert handicapper takes a look into the odds and provides his expert opinion and free MLB pick.

The wildcard spots are up for grabs in both the National and American League's. Today we look to Seattle where the Toronto Blue Jays come to visit in a crucial series that will push one of the teams closer to the playoffs. We're going to take a look at the total as it looks like odds makers have overlooked the fact that there are two really good right-handers on the mound.


Toronto Blue Jays
Aaron Sanchez takes the mound for Toronto with a 3.17 ERA and 1.18 whip but got hammered versus Boston in his last start allowing six earned runs in just four innings. The 24-year-old right-hander had a tremendous first half of the season but has cooled off a bit in the second half. He has been hot and cold in his last several starts and has not been immune to getting knocked around a little bit like at Kansas City and at Cleveland before his debacle against Boston 10 days ago. He still has some really solid overall numbers but I think it's interesting that oddsmakers have set this total decently high considering how lights out he can be at times. 

At the plate, Toronto is a much different offensive team on the road than at home but this a good spot for them to score more than a few runs.


Seattle Mariners
Felix Hernandez gets the start for Seattle and comes in with a 3.79 ERA and 1.31 whip along with a shocking 4.10 ERA at home this season. Hernandez simply has not been as dominant this season as he has in years past as he has allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last four starts and a lot of his numbers are the worst of his career. He has been good against sub par hitting teams this second half of the season, but against teams that can swing the bat he hasn't just been subpar he has been bad allowing five earned runs or more versus the Twins, White Sox, Rangers, and Astros since the break. I have a hard time believing he's going to come in and be lights out against a Toronto team that although does not have great numbers still remain as one of the most dangerous lineups in the American League. 

Offensively Seattle has been hot and cold at the plate over their last 10 games, but like Toronto, this is a good spot for them to put up their share of runs.


MLB odds
Oddsmakers have set the total for this game at 8 across the board with regular juice on both the under and over. For my MLB pick, I'm going to grab the best odds I can like at 5Dimes, where you will find a 50% free play sing up bonus, over the total of 8 at -101. In the first half of the season, this total would've seemed way off and way too high but the way these two guys a pitcher recently expect for the offenses to both put together quite a few quality at-bats.

July/August record: 30-23-2
September record: 12-12-1

Free MLB Pick: Over 8
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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