The '30-10' MLB Betting Angle Supports Red Sox In Run Line Pick

Ross Benjamin

Friday, July 29, 2016 9:32 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 29, 2016 9:32 PM UTC

Our MLB analyst breaks down Friday night’s game between the Red Sox and Angels. He provides his insight, offers an analysis on this game and provides his free MLB pick.

Red Sox (Porcello) vs Angels (Lincecum)
The Red Sox and Angels will play the second of a four-game series in Anaheim on Friday. The Angels took the series opener last night by a score of 2-1. These American League teams have split the four games played against one another in 2016. By virtue of last night’s win, the Angels are now 12-6 versus Boston since 2014, and that includes 6-2 at home.


Starting Pitchers
Boston’s Rick Porcello is quietly having a standout season. Porcello is 15-5 during his twenty team starts with a stellar 3.57 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s also exhibited stellar form over his last five starts, proven by compiling a superb 2.53 ERA in that time period, and Boston went a perfect 5-0 during those aforementioned Porcello outings. Since 2015, the veteran right-handed hurler is a perfect 9-0 in his team starts against opponents with a win percentage of .380 to .460. The Angels enter Friday’s game with a record of 46-56 which equates to a win percentage of .451. The Red Sox won those previously mentioned seven contests by a sizable average of 4.3 runs per game. Porcello is also a lucrative 71-37 (.657) in his career team starts against opposing clubs with a losing record.

One has to wonder, how much longer will Tim Lincecum remain as part of the Angels starting pitching rotation. After turning in an inspiring performance in his Angels 2016 starting debut, it’s since all gone south for Lincecum. The veteran right-hander has collected a massive 10.50 ERA, 2.58 WHIP, and surrendered 9 home runs in 24.0 innings pitched over his last six starts.


Money Line Betting Angle
Rick Porcello has a 2.25 ERA over his last three starts. Conversely, Tim Lincecum has posted a mammoth 2.58 ERA through his preceding three starts. This sets up a very successful MLB Odds money line wagering system.

Any road team with a pitcher (Porcello) that’s collected an ERA of 2.50 or less over his last three starts, and is facing a pitcher (Lincecum) with a WHIP of 2.25 or worse during his prior three starts, resulted in those road teams going 30-10 (75%) since 2012. The road teams had a significant +2.3 run per game differential over the course of those forty contests.


Final Take and Pick
The top online sportsbooks are undeterred by Boston losing six of its last seven games, and that’s demonstrated by making them a large money line favorite. I’m calling for a lopsided Red Sox win tonight, and I’ll use the run line when making one of my MLB picks. Current MLB betting odds at provides me with a best price for this specific wager.

Free MLB Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+120)
Best Line Offered: at SportsInteraction

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