Thank the Odds: Twins with Bigger Bats, Better Pitcher AND Underdog Price

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, June 26, 2015 1:56 PM UTC

Friday, Jun. 26, 2015 1:56 PM UTC

This sports handicapper has spotted the pitching mismatch of the day, noting a bonus of bigger bats and the better current form. At a pick 'em price, Twins vs. Brewers oozes with value.

Minnesota Twins (May) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Lohse) (-110) 8:10 ET
Friday's MLB Odds makers have priced the Minnesota Twins as underdogs against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park for this first of a 3-game weekend series.  The first pitch is scheduled for 8:10 ET, Friday evening.  This is a battle between an overachieving Minnesota team and a home standing Milwaukee Brewers squad, who has the worst home record in the league at 13-25.  The pitching matchup is also in our favor, as it features Twins’ starter, May, who is pitching his best baseball of his MLB career against Milwaukee starter, Lohse, who may well be in the bullpen or minor leagues, were he starting for any other than the pitching-poor Milwaukee Brewers.

Remember that it was just one year ago today that Milwaukee was playing .600 ball and thinking about beginning to print playoff tickets.  Then, the bottom fell out.  Milwaukee ended with just 82 victories and there were no playoff seats.  A rebound was expected by many, as Milwaukee entered 2015.  But, an 18-36 beginning confirmed that last year’s demise was for real.  The 27-48 record to date is well deserved based on their .669 OPS and their .755 pitching OPS.  Both numbers are in the bottom 20% of the league.  Tonight’s starter, Lohse, certainly has not been part of the solution. Milwaukee has won just 5 of 15 Lohse starts, in which he has a 6.30 ERA.  It has been even worse lately for Lohse, who in his last 6 starts has gone 0-5 with a 7.59 ERA.  The long ball has been a consistent issue, as this year in 15 starts, Lohse has allowed 17 homeruns.  In a pair of starts vs. Minnesota, Lohse has a 9.28 ERA, working 10 2/3 IP while allowing 5 homers.  A 1.59 home WHIP confirms he is a PURE PLAY AGAINST on this field.  

We have spent much of the last month fading Minnesota based on the SELL sign they flashed at the beginning of June.  The Twins still have the No. 20 batting OPS and No. 24 pitching OPS, but the correction has been made with a recent 6-11 slide.  Today, we can point to a resurgence that has seen their bats begin to boom with 21 runs on 35 hits in the previous 3 games.  We are certainly eager to back tonight’s starter, May.  For, he is pitching the best baseball of his career.  In 4 recent starts, spanning 24 IP, May has a 1.88 ERA and authored 24 Ks.  A 1.14 road WHIP is a sign that he is about to enter PURE PLAY ON territory. 

Want no part of these Milwaukee Brewers or Lohse in a pick ‘em situation on their home field!  Far prefer the short-term momentum of Minnesota and the slants of May, who appears as if, he has turned the corner.     

MLB Picks: Take Minnesota Twins +114 at 5Dimes

comment here