Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, looks at totals trends for the 2017 season through the All-Star break. Read on as he breaks down the teams cashing over 60%!
The All-Star break gives us a great window to reflect and refresh on trends that have come into focus in the first half of the MLB season. One of the trends that we can analyze are totals trends, as they often are counterintuitive to the overall performance of a team and other times they make perfect sense. I’m going to focus on teams that are cashing at 60% or above in each situation so that we can profit more on our MLB picks. Let’s get to it!
The New York Mets are the kings of the Over so far this year, cashing at a great, 64.5% clip and are 49-27-10. The Mets are 14th in the MLB in overall offense and 22nd in overall pitching according to WAR. The Under crown belongs to the Cleveland Indians, cashing at 61.7% for a 31-50-6 record. The Indians are 7th in overall offense on the year, but 2nd in overall pitching. Looking at the Mets and Indians compared to their totals records correlates to pitching being the more important stat to consider for overall totals.
The Mets are 65.8% in hitting the Over at home, but also consider the Tampa Bay Rays as the other team in the MLB hitting Over 60.9% on the year for a 28-18 record. The Rays are ranked 6th in overall offense and 12th in pitching. The only team hitting Unders at 60% or over so far this year at home is the San Francisco Giants, who come in right at 60% or 16-24-1. The Giants are 27th in the league in overall offense and 17th in overall pitching. The Giants actually have an above average overall FIP, but their offense is just that bad.
Rocking the Road:
The Houston Astros have the best road Over trend at 66.7% for a 26-13-5 record. The Astros are Number 1 in overall offense on the year and 5th in overall pitching. Their strong pitching is at odds with the overall correlation outlined above, but consider that the Astros have scored 64 more runs than the team ranked 2nd in overall offense. Cleveland is tops for Unders on the road at 67.6%, but there are three more teams that cash over 60%: Los Angeles Angels (63.3%), Arizona Diamondbacks (62.5%), and the Colorado Rockies (60.5%). It appears that the public perception of the Diamondbacks and Rockies being Over teams has helped inflate some lines while they play on the road, versus their home field bandboxes. There is also the fact that the Diamondbacks are the #1 road pitching team in the MLB and the Rockies are ranked at #3.
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2017 MLB Record, 135-123-7, +1.44 Units