Today we delve into very specific circumstances trying to understand for MLB picks if three starting pitchers can help their teams escape brutal home/road scenarios we have seen their clubs establish.
These teams have been terrible either at home or away and are among the worst choices for sports picks versus the MLB odds this season. (Or a great pick if you have played against them)
Here is each teams and pitchers story for Saturday.
Angels vs. Ahtletics: Oakland Leans on Hahn to Save Itself
Sonny Gray and Oakland had a 7-2 lead heading into the seventh inning over the rival L.A.A. Angels and looked ready to win their fifth game in six tries. But like the animals in Jurassic World, something changed and Gray lost his stuff and the worst bullpen in the AL came in and threw gas on the fire, as the Halos score eight times in the seventh and exploded to a 12-7 come from behind win. This left the A’s a stunned 12-20 at home and as baseball handicappers are aware, they are second-worst wager in baseball at -15.2 units.
Jesse Hahn (4-5, 3.62 ERA) gets the call for Oakland this afternoon as they attempt to get that horrible taste out of their mouths and sportsbooks like Wagerweb (home of the guaranteed next day payouts) has them as -130 favorites.
The Athletics will face an again struggling Jered Weaver (4-7, 4.65), who has lost his last three starts with a 6.64 ERA while surrendering six home runs. In his last three starts in Oak-Town, Weaver has a 6.41 ERA, which would account for the Angels being this size an underdog.
However, the A’s are far from a lock with a 10-17 record as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season and L.A. is 14-2 after scoring seven runs or more in two straight games the last three seasons.
Slight Disadvantage – Hahn and Oakland
Rays vs. Indians: Cleveland Turns to Kluber for Comfort
The betting odds say the Indians are -185 home favorites because of what Corey Kluber (3-8, 3.54) is capable of, not what his record is. The current AL Cy Young holder and Cleveland have lost 11 of his 14 starts this season and faces a smoldering first place Tampa Bay squad that has won seven of eight.
Though the right-hander has a 2.25 ERA in his past seven starts, he is only 3-3, thanks to a lack of run support. In those starts the Indians have managed 15 total runs. Despite being a pretty solid road team, Cleveland is a sickly 13-20 at Progressive Field, down -14.4 units. Match this record against the Rays who are not only a surprise team to be in first place, but the fact they have the finest road record in the majors at 21-13 (+10.1).
From a handicapping perspective Tampa Bay has great value, but hard to overlook Kluber and the Tribe are 11-0 at home after he’s given up two or less earned runs in his last two outings since 2013.
Slight Advantage – Kluber and Cleveland
Mets vs. Braves: Mets Need Offense to Help Syndergaard
The New York can thank Philadelphia from keeping them out of the headlines to a degree. Only the Phillies are a poorer wager than the Mets on the road the reason is more evident than Tiger Woods golf game.
New York is 10-22 (-11.8) away from the Big Apple and they are plating a pathetic 3.0 times a game on the road. In Philadelphia’s case they at least have reason for scoring 2.7 RPG on the road, they are a horrific offensive team in averaging 3.0 runs no matter where they play, but the Mets score 4.3 RPG at Citi Field, which is not exactly a hitter’s paradise.
This lack of support places a great deal of pressure on a young hurler like Noah Syndergaard (2-4, 3.76) to be almost perfect and he’s had a tough time on the road with a 6.48 ERA.
The Mets are -110 away favorites at Atlanta, but facing a talented rookie in Williams Perez (3-0, 2.29) and being 2-13 in road games versus NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs a game this season, I will take the home underdog.
Disadvantage – Syndergaard and New York