The team and player props for Friday's huge baseball slate have been released. Let's see which opportunities stand out most on the MLB odds board.
Philadelphia Phillies Team Total OVER 3.5 (-120)
Hear us out. Sure, the Phillies have had one of the most anemic offenses in all of baseball, but they've actually showed some signs of life in recent weeks.
Tonight Philadelphia will play host to Colorado, with the MLB odds showing the Phillies favored at -160 or so. They have the distinct advantage with Cole Hamels on the mound, as he's really been a bright spot for the Phillies in what's otherwise been a disappointing start to the season. Meanwhile, the Rockies will turn to Chad Bettis, who owns a 4.19 ERA and 1.40 WHIP thus far.
So why do we like the Philadelphia Phillies to eclipse their team total tonight? As we mentioned, the offense has showed some sparks, with Ben Revere and Chase Utley hitting over .300 over the past seven days, with Ryan Howard and Maikel Franco providing the power in spurts. Overall this offense doesn't intimidate many people, but they should be able to get some things going against Bettis, who hasn't been very reliable whatsoever in his limited workload in 2015. With a career 6.29 ERA and 1.74 WHIP, Bettis hasn't been fooling anyone with his recent solid assignments, so we feel good about backing Philadelphia's offense in a rare spot.
Jose Reyes vs. Brian Dozier Total Bases: Back Dozier +105
Another off-the-wall pick here. A lot of people are going to be clamoring over the opportunity to take advantage of Jose Reyes' return. He hasn't really skipped a beat since coming from injury and now gets to face a very hittable Trevor May.
However, we think the value is actually with Brian Dozier in this situation. His bat has gone a little cold here lately, but he's always a good bet to do some damage whenever he's facing a lefty, and that's the case tonight against the laboring Mark Buehrle, who's very clearly on the downhill stretch of his career. Dozier has been a lefty-killer over the years and should have a good opportunity to reach base a least a couple times.
What's more, Dozier has proven to have more pop than Reyes, and that's always important in these total bases props.
Add in the fact we trust May a lot more than Buehrle at this stage in the season, and you can see why we feel confident in backing Dozier with our MLB picks at such an attractive price. We're on the Minnesota second baseman over Toronto's leadoff hitter in this spot.
Miami Marlins Team Total UNDER 3.5 (-120)
Since we were able to get a great number on the Dozier prop, we don't mind taking on some more chalk here in our final prop selection. We're zeroing in on another team total, this time in the matchup between the Mets and Marlins.
If you didn't know, Matt Harvey's pitching for New York, which is why Miami's team total and the overall total (6.5) are so low in the first place. Harvey had his worst outing of the season his last time out, and there were rumors that he was suffering from a dead arm, but he emerged from a bullpen session soon after and proclaimed that he was 100%.
When fully healthy, there are very few pitchers as dominant as Harvey, and we fully expect him to shut down a Marlins offense that hasn't been scaring anyone. We think the right-hander will pitch at least seven dominant innings here, with a very high likelihood of a shutout along the way.
As long as the bullpen can come in and do their part, we see the Marlins' total ending below 3.5 runs.